The unpredictability of Indian monsoons will increase further if the global rise in temperature is not controlled immediately. The frequency of extreme wet monsoon, currently witnessed in Uttarakhand and Himachal Pradesh, will also increase substantially. The water situation in river basins, especially that of the Ganga, will become erratic – there will be more runoff, that is more water flowing in the river, but wet seasons will become wetter and dry seasons drier. By the 2050s, with a temperature increase of 2°C-2.5°C compared to pre-industrial levels, water for agricultural production in the river basins of the Indus, the Ganges and the Brahmaputra will reduce substantially, impacting food adequacy for nearly 63 million people.
The analysis is part of a report by the World Bank titled Turn Down The Heat: Climate Extremes, Regional Impacts and the Case for Resilience, released on Wednesday. It looks at the likely impacts of 2°C and 4°C warming on agricultural production, water resources, coastal ecosystems and cities across South Asia, Sub-Saharan Africa, and South East Asia. It builds on a 2012 Bank report that concluded the world would warm by 4°C above pre-industrial levels by the end of this century if countries do not take concerted action now.
