Climate Change
Wheat production to decline as global temperature increases
At the same time, the demand for wheat is expected to increase by 60 per cent by the middle of the 21st century
By DTE Staff
Published: Wednesday 14 September 2016
A new research that assessed the impact of global temperature change on crop yield has found the production of wheat—an important part of diets worldwide—will decline as temperatures increase. At the same time, the demand for wheat is expected to increase by 60 per cent by the middle of the 21st century, as per the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO).
The global population is currently over 7 billion and is forecast to rise to at least 9 billion, and potentially up to 12 billion, by 2050, which will put more pressure on agricultural land and water sources. Wheat is one of the most consumed crops in the world.
With a 1 ◦C global temperature increase, global wheat yield is projected to decline between 4.1 per cent and 6.4 per cent. The paper was published in journal Nature.
The effect could be worse on warmer countries. Smallholder farmers in African nations and India, who are largely responsible for wheat production, will bear the brunt in such a scenario. The study estimates about 8.0% yield declines per 1 ◦C of global temperature increase in India. In Egypt, simulations showed about 11% and 20% decline in yield with 1 ◦C temperature rise.
Climate change may also have a slightly positive impression on food production.”Some or all of the negative global warming impacts on wheat yield might be compensated by increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations under full irrigation and fertilization,” the paper says.
Research on crop yield in relation to temperature rise is not new. However, this paper integrates results from three different methods improving “the estimated impact precision and confidence in assessments of climate impacts on global food security”.
Such research may be crucial in determining appropriate global food security strategies.
Related Stories
- Will India’s wheat imports lead to global food crisis?
- Wheat price war
- Keeping pace with climate change in crop development
India Environment Portal Resources :
- Crop management as an agricultural adaptation to climate change in early modern era: A comparative study of Eastern and Western Europe
- A district level assessment of vulnerability of Indian agriculture to climate change
- The impact of high-end climate change on agricultural welfare
- Managing climate risk using climate-smart agriculture
- Agriculture in the new climate action plans of Latin America (Intended Nationally Determined Contributions)
- Agricultural practices and technologies to enhance food security, resilience and productivity in a sustainable manner
Comments are moderated and will be published only after the site moderator’s approval. Please use a genuine email ID and provide your name. Selected comments may also be used in the ‘Letters’ section of the Down To Earth print edition.
1 oC raise does not mean it is same all over the wheat growing regions of the world. Some regions may be lower and some other regions may be higher. Yet it may not significant when compared to intra-seasonal and intra-annual temperature variations over the wheat growing regions. In India they are significantly high.
Dr. S. Jeevananda Reddy