Cyclonic conditions are likely to increase temperatures by 3-5°C in the Indian subcontinent
A low-pressure area formed over the southeast Bay of Bengal adjoining the south Andaman Sea will eventually develop into a cyclonic storm, confirmed the India Meteorological Department (IMD) on May 8, 2023.
The low-pressure area formed around 8.30 am on May 8 will intensify into a depression on May 9, IMD claimed in its bulletin.
The low-pressure area will continue to move northwards and intensify into a cyclonic storm by May 10, said Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, director general of meteorology, in a media statement.
“It is likely to move initially north-northwestwards towards the east-central Bay of Bengal till May 11. Thereafter, it is likely to recurve gradually and move north-northeastwards towards the Bangladesh-Myanmar coasts,” IMD said.
Also read: Cyclone to miss Indian coast, likely to make landfall in Myanmar by May 13-14 say IMD models
“The cyclone will impact the Andaman and Nicobar coasts from May 8 until 12, resulting in heavy to very heavy rainfall,” Debasish Jena, agrometeorology scientist, district agromet unit, Cuttack, told Down To Earth.
Wind conditions over the southeast Bay of Bengal, Andaman and Nicobar Islands and adjoining Andaman Sea will prevail around 60-70 kilometres per hour (kmph), IMD stated in a press statement. Strong winds will intensify further up to 80-90 kmph as the system moves towards the east-central Bay of Bengal, the statement added.
“If the cyclone develops into a severe one as it is estimated, the wind conditions can increase between 120-170 kmph,” Jena said. The official said the cyclone is expected to bring heatwave conditions to the Indian subcontinent.
“The cyclone will strengthen the northwesterly winds, resulting in increase in temperatures across the country. The high pressure area and anti-cyclonic movement will pull the drier and warm winds from Pakistan and adjoining areas towards India,” he explained.
Until May 7, the maximum temperatures in most parts of the country remained below 40 degrees Celsius, IMD stated.
The temperatures were 2°C-4°C below normal, apart from some parts of northeast India, West Bengal, Sikkim, coastal Karnataka, Bihar, Odisha, Northeast Uttar Pradesh, south Konkan and Goa.
However, the temperatures are expected to increase by 3°C-5°C over most parts of India in the next five days. The humid air and high temperatures are likely to create hot and uncomfortable weather conditions.
Jena said the heatwave will likely affect agriculture negatively and give a feeling of actual summer, which has been absent so far this season. “How the winds behave and heatwave conditions prevail and affect the onset of monsoon will be known post landfall of the cyclone,” he said.
Raghu Murtugudde, a climate scientist at the University of Maryland and Indian Institute of Technology, Bombay, said that forecasts have changed from earlier predictions of the cyclone hitting Myanmar. It is not surprising since long-lead cyclone forecasting is a huge challenge.
“Rapid intensification of cyclone, however, remains a worry due to anomalously warm waters that have continued since March earlier this year. It is also getting quite strong,” he said.
Another cyclone is also brewing in the Indian Ocean near Indonesia, Murtugudde added. “But we have to monitor what it does and how it travels over the coming days,” he said.
Meanwhile, the IMD predicted that thunderstorms accompanied by lightning, gusty winds, and hailstorms may be reported from the northwestern part of the country. Hailstorms are very likely at isolated places over Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand.
In south India, the cyclonic storm conditions are likely to cause light, moderate and heavy rainfall over Kerala, Mahe and south interior Karnataka over the next five days. Heavy rains are also expected over isolated areas of Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and Karaikal.
On May 9, scattered to fairly widespread rainfall is likely over Assam, Meghalaya and Arunachal Pradesh over the next three days, according to IMD. Arunachal Pradesh may receive heavy rains on May 9 in isolated places.
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The low-pressure area will continue to move northwards and intensify into a cyclonic storm by May 10. Representative photo: iStock..png)
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