Punjab needs to employ 871 years of flood-protection, while other flood-prone provinces like Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Sindh would require around 708 years and 585 years respectively
Pakistan is experiencing its worst deluge since 2010. Photo: iStock Pakistan needs to employ another 435 years of flood-protection measures to mitigate flood-like situations in future, according to a 2021 study.
The study titled Residual Flood Damage Under Intensive Adaptation, published in journal Nature, calculated the extent of flood-protection levels, which countries need to employ in terms of years.
Pakistan is experiencing its worst deluge since 2010, with a third of the country currently submerged under water. The country is witnessing its wettest monsoon since 1961, with an excess of 243 per cent above average as on August 30, 2002, noted Pakistan’s meteorological department. The floods have killed more than 1,000 people and have left 33 million stranded.
In this context, mitigating future flood risks becomes essential. The study estimated the global cost of employing adaptive flood control measures — depending on local economic scenarios and cost adaptation measures — to quantify the cost of residual flood measure (RFD).
Also read: Is it climate crisis that fuelled flooding in Pakistan?
RFD refers to unavoidable increases in flood damage, even under an adaptation strategy based on feasible adaptation costs. Adaptation strategy, in the context of a flood, implies infrastructural measures employed to mitigate the risks posed by floods.
But while a high RFD means higher adaptive costs, the benefits definitely outweigh the costs. RFD in south Asia is estimated to be around four million, while adaptation costs about three million, according to the study. But the benefits from the measures employed attune to over $50 million under the RCP8.5/SSP5. On a global scale, the benefits run into $74 billion.
RCP8.5/SSP5 are two different emission scenarios used by climate scientists. Representative Concentration Pathway or RCP8.5 refers to the concentration of carbon that delivers global warming at an average of 8.5 watts per square meter across the planet. Shared Socio-economic Pathways or SSPs are scenarios of projected socio-economic global changes up to 2100.
While past studies have estimated the cost of adaptive measures, the role of RFD and the correlation between the two variables had a limited scope.
Through the prism of cost and benefit, the study tries to quantify the cost of adaptive measures which need to be employed by estimating expected annual damage (EAD).
RFD, a part of the total EAD outlay, is calculated by deducting the past EAD (1970-2000) and future EAD estimates (set to 1000 years which is the maximum protection level as shown in the graphic).
RFD, as part of the gross domestic product, remains high in eastern China, northern parts of India and the central regions of the African continent, according to the researchers.
In Pakistan, riverine floods — considered as one of the major natural disasters — have become synonymous with economic losses. The researchers included five provinces in Pakistan for calcutating the RFD.
The economic loss from the latest disaster could exceed $10 billion, according to Pakistan’s foreign ministry.
The country is already witnessing a 27 per cent spike in inflation rates and is one of the most climate-vulnerable countries in the world.
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