Down To Earth has been following the current El Nino since July. A lowdown
With its long-range forecasts for the southwest monsoon season rainfall, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) has confirmed that this is going to be a drought year. During the monsoon season (August to September), a rainfall of 43.5cm is expected. This is just 49 per cent of the average season's rainfall based on the 1951-2000 climatology.
The reason for this is the development of El Nino conditions in the Equatorial Pacific during the recent two weeks. The latest forecasts from a majority of the dynamical and statistical models indicate strong possibility of weak to moderate El Nino conditions emerging during the next two months. The probability is as high as 65 per cent. These conditions are likely to have an adverse impact on the rainfall over India during the second half of the monsoon season.
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By Dinsa Sachan, Date: April 27, 2012
El-Nino could emerge later but drought unlikely
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By Dinsa Sachan, Date: June 04, 2012
Weather conditions that promote El Nino persistent, says Met department; drought feared
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By Dinsa Sachan, Date: July 17, 2012
Australian Met department says climatic indicators for the phenomenon have eased
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By Hemant Nair, Date: July 06, 2012
Report hints at global warming as the cause
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