Navigating turbulent waters: Impact of Bangladesh’s political crisis on bilateral water diplomacy
Bangladesh is currently grappling with severe political instability. Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina was reportedly forced to flee the country after a violent crackdown on demonstrations resulted in the deaths of hundreds. What began as protests against job quotas quickly escalated into a broader movement demanding her ouster.
The longstanding, crucial hydropolitical relations between India and Bangladesh may face new challenges in the wake of this political turmoil.
Sheikh Hasina is said to have sought temporary shelter in India, while she explores options for political asylum in countries like the United Kingdom. The sudden exit of Sheikh Hasina from Bangladesh’s political landscape is expected to have far-reaching consequences on the nation’s bilateral relations with its neighbours in South Asia, particularly with India.
Key sectors likely to be affected include security cooperation, trade relations, the power sector and the movement of people and goods across borders.
While much of the attention has been focused on the economic and security implications for India, one critical area that remains ignored amid ongoing political chaos is transboundary water cooperation between India and Bangladesh.
History of hydro-cooperation between India & Bangladesh
India’s connections with Sheikh Hasina and Awami League are deeply historical, stemming from its critical support for Sheikh Mujibur Rahman and the Awami League during Bangladesh’s 1971 Liberation War.
In 1975, when Rahman and many of his family members were tragically assassinated, his daughters, Sheikh Hasina and Sheikh Rehana, were granted sanctuary in India. Hasina spent six years in India before returning home in 1981, a period that helped solidify the bond between her and India.
This historical connection has translated into a strong alliance between India and the Awami League-led government in Bangladesh. Under Hasina’s leadership, Bangladesh has been a consistent and reliable ally of India, particularly in areas of strategic importance such as water resource management.
Significant breakthroughs in cross-border water-sharing agreements have occurred during her tenure as head of state. For instance, the landmark Ganga Waters Treaty of 1996, which was a major achievement in resolving long-standing water disputes, was finalised during Hasina’s first term. Even Arooq Sobhan, the then foreign Secretary of Bangladesh in 1996, noted that the ‘Awami League had stronger commitment towards having a treaty'.
Additionally, the Kushiyara River Pact, which marked another important step in bilateral water cooperation and ongoing efforts to secure a long-pending agreement over the Teesta River, underscore the collaborative efforts that have flourished under Awami League leadership in Bangladesh.
In addition to water sharing, both the countries are poised to develop Indo-Bangladesh protocol routes to enhance the navigation through the mighty Brahmaputra river. As a result, Bangladesh and India have reached a broad understanding over river water sharing.
In contrast, the Bangladesh National Party (BNP), the other mainstream political party, has somewhat shown inconsistency in its policies of transboundary water management with India. It can be comprehended through the completely opposite policy adopted by Ziaur Rehman, one of the founders of BNP and successor of Sheikh Mujibur Rahman’s regime.
When BNP returned to power from 1991 to 1996, under the leadership of Prime Minister Khaleda Zia, the party implemented a twin-track strategy for transboundary water sharing with India.
On one hand, BNP held India responsible for many of Bangladesh's internal challenges, particularly in relation to water management and other bilateral issues. On the other hand, the party sought to garner international support for its stance, raising the issue of transboundary water management on various global platforms. This kind of policies often resulted in strained bilateral relations with India over cross border river water sharing.
Current political turmoil & way forward for India
At present, many South Asian countries are grappling with political crises, and Bangladesh has recently joined this list. India cannot choose to remain silent over it, as this regional chaos will inevitably impacts its own stability and interests.
In case of Bangladesh, a pressing concern is the impending renewal of the 1996 Ganga Waters Treaty, which is set to expire in 2026. Former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina was on an official visit to India in June 2024 to discuss the treaty's future. However, the escalating political turmoil in Bangladesh may undermine these efforts. An interim government, led by Muhammad Yunus, now faces the challenge of sustaining diplomatic momentum amid persistent instability.
Despite the interim government's declaration to uphold strong ties with India, the durability of bilateral relations will hinge on mutual trust and the ability to navigate ideological differences. Furthermore, India’s strategy towards neighbouring nations needs reassessment.
Rather than disproportionately investing in a single political entity, India should cultivate harmonious relations with opposition parties as well to ensure smoother political transitions. This would help India to safeguard its interests amid change of power.
Finally, India should adapt to the evolving political landscape in Bangladesh, formulating strategies that preserve amicable relations without compromising its own interests.
Rahul M Lad is an assistant professor in the department of Geography, School of Liberal Arts and Social Science, Faculty of Education and Humanities, JSPM University, Pune. Ravindra G Jaybhaye is a senior professor in the department of Geography at Savitribai Phule Pune University in Pune. Nitin N Mundhe is an associate professor in the department of Geography at Sir Parshurambhau College in Pune.
Views expressed are the authors’ own and don’t necessarily reflect those of Down To Earth.