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Water is not just conditional to life, but is also a conduit to the biggest contemporary threat to life — climate change. Whether it is the planet’s changing wind patterns due to warming or the increasing extreme weather events, the climate emergency has disrupted the water cycle.
It unfolds before us when we hear about water-related events like floods and droughts. Climate change results in extreme weather events like floods and spells of severe drought. This, in turn, affects water resources. For example, floods damage and contaminate water sources thus making it unsuitable for consumption. Dry spells result in crop losses and waterbodies don’t get the usual water refills.
Global warming has been more rapid in Africa than the rest of the world, according to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Several reports have noted the particular vulnerabilities of African populations to climate change. As World Food Programme (WFP) Executive Director David Beasley said “while the region has contributed nothing to climate change, it is paying the highest price.”
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An analysis by Washington DC-based Brookings Institution said that seven out of the 10 most climate vulnerable nations in the world are located in Africa. Warming in Africa has exceeded the limits of natural variability. According to the earlier IPCC report (Assessment Report 5, AR5), the near surface temperatures had risen by 0.5°C over the past century. Despite the size and geographical spread of Africa, the only exception to the observed heating trend comes from the central and interior regions of Africa. But even here, there are problems.
“It is very likely that mean annual temperature has increased over the past century over most of the African continent, with the exception of areas of the interior of the continent, where the data coverage has been determined to be insufficient to draw conclusions about temperature trends,” said AR5. By the end of the century, most models show that temperatures across the continent under the “business-as-usual” scenario will be about 3-6°C higher than the average temperature observed at the end of the 20th century, which is already close to being 0.5°C more than average temperatures at the beginning. AR5 noted that the maximum change in temperature by the end of the century is likely to occur in the northern and southern parts of the continent. But the fastest rate of change is expected to occur on the western side. “However, in the tropics, especially tropical West Africa, these unprecedented climates are projected to occur 1 to 2 decades earlier than the global average because the relatively small natural climate variability in this region generates narrow climate bounds that can be easily surpassed by relatively small climate changes,” said the AR5.
The circulation of water in the Earth-Atmosphere system has been significantly impacted by climate change and human activities, according to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). The effects on the hydrological cycle are leading to droughts and extreme rainfall events and the erratic water cycles unleashed widespread disruption, burdening livelihoods and economies. The ongoing melting of snow, ice and glaciers compounded the threat, exacerbating the risk of extreme weather events such as floods.
These events cast long-term consequences on the water security of millions, warned WMO’s "State of Global Water Resources 2022" report, released in October 2023. The findings of the report are critical, as nearly four billion people are already experiencing severe water scarcity for at least a month every year.
High water stress caused by global warming will displace up to 700 million Africans by 2030. It will also aggravate conflicts on the continent, according to "State of the Climate in Africa 2021" published jointly by WMO and the African Union Commission. The warming is causing extreme weather events such as lingering droughts and devastating floods that is hitting African communities, economies and ecosystems hard. The warming has caused a disruption in the pattern of rainfall.
Glaciers too are disappearing, the report said. Mount Kenya, Mount Kilimanjaro (Tanzania) and the Rwenzori mountains (Uganda) are retreating at a faster rate than the global average. Kilimanjaro could vanish by 2040 due to climate change, the WMO had warned in the State of the Climate in Africa 2020. But, the existence of these glaciers in east Africa depends on the amount of future precipitation that falls on the region.
Africa’s freshwater lakes have shrunk. The total surface area of Lake Chad shrunk to 1,350 square kilometres in the 2000s, from 25 000 sq km in the 1960s. Lake Chad, which is located in the Sahel region at the conjunction of Nigeria, Niger, Chad and Cameroon, is home to 17.4 million people. These countries of the Lake Chad basin are among the 10 least peaceful countries in Africa, according to the "Global Terrorism Index" report, 2020.
“The drying up of continental water bodies like Lake Chad has significant adverse impacts on the agricultural sector, ecosystems, biodiversity and socioeconomic development,” said Petteri Taalas, secretary-general of WMO. In West Africa, the WMO report of 2020 has attributed long-term decline in river flow to increase in temperature, drought, and increased water demand. Four out of five African countries are unlikely to have sustainably managed water resources by 2030, the report, which has a special focus on water, noted. Increasing demand and decreasing supply of water might worsen conflict, it said. This will result in Africa not being able to meet the United Nations-mandated Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) by 2030. Going forward, it will be very difficult for the continent to achieve goals on sustainable development unless actions are taken to address water-related concerns, the report said. Poor progress on water security will impact at least three SDG goals — poverty alleviation (SDG 1), green energy (SDG 7) and disaster risk reduction (SDG 11).
(This article is excerpted from the “State of Africa’s Environment 2024” report. To read the full article, download the report free here)