Subscribe
Human-wildlife overlap is expected to increase in more than half of Earth’s terrestrial surface in the next five decades, a new study has stated.
It estimated that the overlap will increase across 56.6 per cent of terrestrial surface by 2070, having consequences on both the sides, and decrease only by 11.8 per cent.
As humans and animals increasingly vie for limited land, researchers caution that these findings may signal early indicators of potential habitat degradation, human-wildlife conflicts, or biodiversity loss in the affected regions.
The study published in the journal Science Advances indicated that population growth by 8 billion will result in the human-wildlife overlap and not the wildlife distributions change due by climate change.
The rest of the planet where there is no overlap observed has no human or animal population or both, it stated.
Almost half of the global land, that is 46.5 per cent, will see doubling of human-wildlife overlap by 2070 and reduce by half in only 6.1 per cent of the land area, the authors of the report noted.
The overlap is expected to happen largely in two-thirds of the land in Africa, followed by South America (66.5 per cent) and North America (38.5 per cent).
A quarter of Oceania is also estimated to see increased human-wildlife overlap. Collectively, the overlap will increase in 178 countries over the next 50 years.
Europe has the highest proportion of land area experiencing declines in human-wildlife overlap by 2070, accounting for 21.4 per cent, according to the report.
The researchers also observed that all continents are predicted to see more areas of forested land experiencing increased human-wildlife overlap.
“Compared to forests in other continents, the median mammal richness is projected to decrease the most across forests in South America (33.4 per cent) and Africa (21.3 per cent); median declines in amphibian (45.4 per cent) and reptile (40 per cent) richness will be most pronounced across forests in South America, and birds will experience the largest median decrease in South American (36.8 per cent) and African forests (26.1 per cent) compared to forests in other continents," they wrote.
The researchers projected the same trend for agricultural area around the globe. These overlaps were attributed to the changes in demand and supply of ecosystem services from wildlife.
“For example, over two-thirds (70.2 per cent) of croplands projected to have increasing human-wildlife overlap by 2070 are expected to see a decline in insectivorous bird richness, species that can help reduce the numbers of crop pests, while only one-third (29.3 per cent) are projected to have an increase in insectivorous bird richness,” it noted.
Grasslands are anticipated to experience a rise in human-wildlife interactions and a 56.3 percent reduction in large carnivore species diversity.
Urban areas are also expected to see greater human-wildlife overlap, with human populations projected to increase 1.9 times by 2070, leading to a decline in species diversity.
The researchers said that their predictions could guide broad-scale conservation prioritisation and define policies for conservation to address unique circumstances in the future and enable better management of coexistence.
“These findings underscore the need to focus conservation and sustainability efforts on hot spots of overlap in forests because of the increasing and simultaneous human stressors that these diverse wildlife communities will face in the future,” the authors of the study said.
They further mentioned that the conservation of urban wildlife and its benefits will become increasingly important in the future, as a significant portion of the human population will be living in cities in the coming decades.