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Extreme rainfall that led to destructive flooding in Kinshasa, capital of the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) in April 2025, is expected to occur every two years in a warming world, scientists have found.
Researchers from the DRC, Rwanda, Kenya, the Netherlands, Sweden, Denmark, the United States and the United Kingdom collaborated to assess to what extent human-induced climate change affected the likelihood and intensity of the seven-day rainfall that led to the flooding in Kinshasa.
The study published by the World Weather Attribution (WWA) on April 17, 2025, found that from a hazard point of view, the event observed in 2025 is not rare. Similar periods of heavy rainfall are expected to occur on average every second year in today’s climate, which has warmed by 1.3°C, due to the burning of fossil fuels.
Kinshasa is prone to frequent and deadly flooding during the rainy season (October to May). The analysis was focussed on the river basin where the Ndjili and the Congo river combine, which includes cities other than Kinshasa. While heavy rain affected large parts of the region, the impacts were concentrated in Kinshasa — a city of more than 17 million citizens.
Torrential rains between April 4 and 7 triggered widespread flooding that have killed at least 72 people and injured 170 more, with Kinshasa bearing the brunt of the crisis.
Several data sources including two weather stations and about half of the climate models analysed indicate a notable rise in heavy rainfall for both Kinshasa and the broader study region. “Therefore, a future increase in heavy rainfall due to climate change is a strong possibility.”
However, the researchers could not quantify the influence of climate change on the recent heavy rains which was due to data uncertainty caused by limited investment in weather monitoring and climate science in Africa.
The researchers thus highlighted the need to invest in weather monitoring stations and climate science to understand changing weather extremes in Central Africa.
“Frequent spells of heavy rain are destroying homes, wiping out crops and cancelling economic gains. With every fraction of a degree of fossil fuel warming, the weather will get more violent, creating a more unequal world,” said Friederike Otto, Imperial College, London and one of the authors.
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change projects an increase in heavy rainfall across Central Africa, particularly over short timescales of five days or less. The Sixth Assessment Report “projected increases in heavy precipitation and pluvial flooding as well as increases in river flooding”.
Floods in Kinshasa, which occur frequently and often result in high death tolls, highlight the urgent need to build resilience to heavy rainfall events. This urgency is further amplified by the city’s rapid growth: Kinshasa’s population is projected to double to nearly 40 million within the next 20 years.
Land-use change and environmental degradation are key factors shaping flood vulnerability in Kinshasa and across central DRC. Experts point to the lack of necessary drainage infrastructure that is plaguing Kinshasa, a densely populated city. The city has expanded into the floodplains. Thus, the impact of urban floods events become worse.
The floods in Kinshasa follow a worsening humanitarian situation in eastern DRC, where ongoing violence has resulted in thousands of deaths and the displacement of millions since January.
United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees spokesperson Eujin Byun said the unfolding emergency reflects the “double crisis” in the DRC, where people are confronting weather shocks on top of ongoing conflict and mass displacement. “The flooding has hit a community already under severe strain,” Byun said.