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South Sudan’s extreme heat in February 2025 was at least 2°C hotter and ten times more likely due to human-induced climate change, according to a new study by World Weather Attribution (WWA). With temperatures reaching 40°C, such extreme heat events are no longer rare in the country, warn 13 WWA scientists who led the study.
These scientists are from the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute, Imperial College London in the United Kingdom, Red Crescent Climate Centre in the Netherlands, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis in Austria, Copenhagen Centre for Disaster Research, University of Copenhagen.
The study, published on March 10, 2025, underscored the growing climate threat in a nation already burdened by conflict, food insecurity, and economic instability.
The scientists analysed the period of February 22-28, the hottest week of the year. They found that climate models underestimate the actual rise in temperatures, suggesting that human-induced warming may have even greater impacts than currently projected.
As global temperatures continue to rise, South Sudan is expected to face more frequent and intense heatwaves, worsening its humanitarian crisis. While the 2024 heatwave in mid-March recorded higher peak temperatures, the 2025 heat wave occurred earlier in February, raising concerns that extreme heat is becoming both more intense and shifting seasonally.
The extreme heat disproportionately affects women and girls, compounding existing vulnerabilities. South Sudan has one of the highest maternal mortality rates in the world—1,223 deaths per 100,000 live births—while female literacy remains low at 29 per cent, compared to 40 per cent for men.
With 95 per cent of employed women working in the informal sector—primarily in agriculture, street vending, and manufacturing—heat exposure increases their risk of heat-related illnesses, including cardiovascular strain, kidney damage, and heat stroke.
Scientists from WWA warn that rising temperatures are also disrupting education. South Sudan has closed schools due to extreme heat for two consecutive years. In March 2024, classrooms shut down amid soaring temperatures, and in February 2025, students collapsed in class, prompting a two-week closure. These disruptions disproportionately impact girls, increasing their likelihood of early marriage and making it harder for them to return to school.
The study highlighted inadequate infrastructure in schools and homes across the country, where iron sheet roofs absorb and retain heat, leading to higher indoor temperatures and an increased risk of heat stress.
However, simple adaptation measures, such as adjusting school hours and improving school infrastructure, could mitigate these disruptions, said the study.
Malnutrition remains a pressing issue, with 860,000 children under five affected. Rising temperatures worsen food insecurity, dehydration risks, and health complications, particularly in female-headed households. Meanwhile, displacement and conflict further exacerbate the crisis. Over 1.1 million people live in overcrowded shelters with poor ventilation, increasing heat exposure. Displaced women, often lacking access to cooling, water, and healthcare, are especially vulnerable.
The study called for adaptation strategies that account for conflict and gender dynamics to prevent deepening existing inequalities. It emphasised empowering women farmers with climate-resilient practices, strengthening labour protections for outdoor workers, and providing financial support to vulnerable households to bolster community resilience. While IGAD’s impact-based early warning systems represent progress, timely dissemination remains critical to saving lives.
South Sudan’s February heatwave highlights the urgent need for climate action. As extreme heat events become more frequent, integrating resilience measures into national and regional planning will be essential to safeguarding lives and livelihoods, the WWA study suggested.