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Africa faces an escalating burden of climate-sensitive diseases, with increasing transmission of vector and waterborne illnesses according to the latest edition of New Delhi-based Centre for Science and Environment (CSE)’s annual publication.
State of Africa’s Environment 2025, released in the Ethiopian capital of Addis Ababa on September 18, 2025, noted that recent statistics revealed a 14 per cent rise in malaria transmissions in 2023, potentially putting an additional 147-171 million people at risk by 2030.
Additionally, 18 African countries reported cholera outbreaks linked to natural disasters, contributing to a staggering 836,600 cases between January 2023 and March 2024, alongside widespread malnutrition and population displacement.
The majority of African Union (AU) member states are not on track to achieve the continent’s target of eradicating malaria by 2030, according to the 2024 Africa Progress Report, unveiled at the 38th AU Summit in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia in February 2025.
Despite the ambitious goals set under the AU’s Catalytic Framework, progress has stalled. Malaria incidence has only decreased by four per cent and mortality by just 15 per cent since 2015.
These figures fall significantly short of the interim targets of a 40 per cent reduction by 2020 and a 75 per cent reduction by 2025. Of the 46 AU Member States reporting malaria cases, only six have reached a 40 per cent reduction in incidence, while just seven have met the 75 per cent reduction target for mortality.
Climate change is exacerbating malaria transmission, particularly in Africa’s highland areas, where the number of months suitable for malaria transmission has already increased by 14 per cent. By the 2030s, an additional 147-171 million Africans could be at risk and climate-driven transmission is expected to result in 775,000 additional deaths by 2050.
According to the State of Africa’s Environment 2025, extreme weather events, such as floods and prolonged rainy seasons, are accelerating mosquito breeding, while humanitarian crises disrupt healthcare systems and hamper malaria control efforts.
The spread of invasive mosquito species presents another challenge. Anopheles stephensi, an urban-adapted mosquito capable of transmitting malaria in densely populated areas, has now been found in eight AU Member States, including Kenya. This species poses a threat of malaria outbreaks in cities and economic centres, where transmission had previously been low.
If malaria funding remains stagnant between 2027 and 2029, Africa could face an estimated 112 million additional cases and up to 280,700 more deaths due to surges and outbreaks. The economic burden of malaria is also considerable. “In malaria-endemic regions, the disease reduces GDP growth by up to 1.3 per cent annually and contributes to the loss of up to half a billion workdays each year. However, investing in malaria elimination brings substantial economic returns. The eradication of malaria could increase Africa’s GDP by $127 billion by 2030,” stated H.E. Moussa Faki, Chairperson of the African Union Commission.
Climate change may be increasing the impact of cholera in African countries, according to State of Africa’s Environment 2025. The continent is likely to see its worst cholera crisis this decade, driven by extreme weather events and poor water supply and sanitation infrastructure, according to WHO. “The common denominator for many of these outbreaks is climate-related events, such as storms, floods and droughts,” alerted World Health Organization (WHO) Director-General Tedros Adhanom in a media briefing on January 11, 2023.
While cholera cases globally stunted in 2021, Africa ditched the trend, with confirmed cases reaching the 2017 levels. The case fatality ratio (CFR) or deaths per 100 confirmed cases more than doubled from less than one in 2020 to almost 2 in 2021. The average cholera CFR reported globally in 2021 was 1.9 per cent and 2.9 per cent in Africa. The average CFR in Africa was almost at three per cent as of January 29, 2023, which was above the 2.3 per cent reached in 2022 and far exceeded the acceptable level of below one.
Other infections
Climate change increases the vector population too, as mosquitoes are now able to breed through the year. For instance, at present most of the predicted transmission risk of Zika virus occurs in the tropics. A study published in Global Change Biology on October 9, 2020, showed that if climate change remained unmitigated, as many as 1.3 billion new people could be living in areas with temperatures suitable for Zika transmission by 2050. Most regions in South and East Asia and sub-Saharan Africa could face year-round outbreaks of Zika infection.
A study published in the BMJ Global Health journal in June 2024 revealed that the geographical range of Rift Valley Fever disease clusters was expanding across eastern Africa.
Rift Valley fever (RVF), a mosquito-borne viral disease caused by Rift Valley fever virus (RVFV), is known for extreme weather-associated large epidemics characterised by abortions and perinatal mortalities in livestock. It also causes fever, jaundice, encephalitis, retinitis and haemorrhagic syndrome in humans. Since its first recorded identification in 1930 in Kenya, RVF outbreaks have been reported throughout Africa with subsequent epidemic deaths in humans and livestock losses.