State of Africa’s Environment: Violence over water resources increased by 34% during 2022-23

Water scarcity triggers distress migration. This reactivates our ancestral memory — some 400,000 years ago, a dry spell in East Africa forced our ancestors to migrate out in search of water-rich geography. Will the world witness another such transformational migration due to lack of water?

There is irrefutable evidence of a severe water crisis, according to the annual State of Africa’s Environment 2024 report published by the Delhi-based think tank Centre for Science and Environment and the Down To Earth magazine. Climate change has aggravated this. Various estimates suggest that 66 per cent of the planet’s land areas are losing water. Populations facing extreme drought might double by the late 21st century.

A recent World Bank report titled Web and Flow: Water, Migration and Development, analysed the “largest dataset on internal migrants” assembled from 64 countries and 189 censuses during 1960- 2015. It argued that water scarcity is a major reason for internal migration in the contemporary world.

This massive analysis of data establishes that low rainfall events account for 10-11 per cent of the increase in migration between 1970 and 2000. “Strikingly, dry shocks have 5 times the effect on out-migration than wet shocks have — the impact of wet shocks is more muted. This suggested that local adaptive capacity may be significantly constrained in the event of repeated dry shocks,” the report said.

Download the State of Africa’s Environment 2024 report free here.

The water scarcity-driven waves of migration have been more eminent in developing and poor countries. There are various reasons for migration, like looking for better economic opportunities, seeking higher education, conflicts and also major disasters.

The link of scarcity or lack of access to water and human migration is a subject of many deliberations. Evidence from the recent past establishes that in many countries internal migration has been caused by water scarcity and events that cause temporary disruption of water supply, besides climatic events like drought and floods.

In developing countries, where farming and fishing are frequently the primary sources of income, employment is dependent on water-intensive industries and is sensitive to water availability. Water-intensive sectors account for 56 per cent of jobs in low-income countries but only 20 per cent in high-income countries. In sub-Saharan Africa, where water-dependent jobs account for 62 per cent of total employment, low rainfall availability frequently results in significant negative gross domestic product or GDP growth.

The management and distribution of shared water resources can have an impact on social cohesion and the likelihood of conflict at the local, national and transnational levels. Water resources that are managed effectively and equitably can foster community trust, inclusivity and cooperation, ultimately leading to peace. However, if mismanaged, water can act as a threat multiplier, exacerbating existing conflicts or leading to new conflicts.

On the other hand, those displaced due to water scarcity add pressure on the resources and infrastructures of the settlement locations. This causes social tensions and armed violence as well.

There are studies claiming that gender-based violence in Somalia increased by 200 per cent against a group of displaced people.

“As water stress increases, so do the risks of local or regional conflict,” said Audrey Azoulay, director-general of United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization. 

The United Nations World Water Development Report 2024, published by UN Children’s Fund (UNICEF) on behalf of UN Water, said, “Conflicts over water can occur when demand exceeds supply, when availability is compromised due to pollution, when access to (and allocation of) water is disputed, when water supply and sanitation services are disrupted, or when water management institutions are inadequate. They can range from legal disputes to violent altercations, often reflecting event-specific socio-political, demographic and environmental conditions.”

Conflicts arising out of water-scarce situations also cause forced displacement. Climate change is also responsible for displacement and migration. Rising numbers of extreme weather events and dry spells like drought becoming longer have further deepened the water-migration nexus.

In an overview research paper published by the Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews in May 2023, the lead author Li Xu of the Global Institute for Water Security, University of Saskatchewan, Saskatoon, Canada, wrote, “Water-migration nexus represents one of the complex interactions between water and humans. Human settlements are highly dependent on water availability as water plays a crucial role in social welfare that directly relates to food and life quality. When water conditions are significantly altered that threaten people's livelihoods, effective adaptation is required to maintain harmonious human and water relations. Migration may be viewed as an effective way or an opportunity for people to adapt to the threatened water systems as it allows people to diversify their income and build resilience.”

Kitty van der Heijden, head of international cooperation at the Netherlands’ foreign ministry, once said, “If there is no water, people will start to move. If there is no water, politicians are going to try and get their hands on it and they might start to fight over it.”

Water is a strategic natural resource for any nation. But in Africa, where most of the river basins are shared by a number of countries, water is also a resource that has caused numerous inter-country conflicts. Asia and Africa are the two main global hotspots of water-related conflicts, according to the Pacific Institute data. Almost 80 per cent of all conflicts worldwide are concentrated in these two regions. Among these are the conflicts in which water or water systems have been used as a weapon, a trigger, a target or a victim of violence.

Asia is the leading region for water conflicts, where around 54 per cent — or more than half of the conflicts and disputes — have been recorded. Africa is second, with close to 24 per cent — or one-fourth — of the conflicts, followed by Latin America and the Caribbean region (taken as a group, accounting for 12 per cent) and Europe.

Drought and water stress linked to climate change has been a trigger behind rising conflicts in Africa. For instance, in the disputes across sub-Saharan Africa — which includes countries such as Burkina Faso, Mali, Ethiopia, Nigeria, Somalia and Kenya — traditional herders and farmers continue to compete for scarce water resources.

In Burkina Faso, at least 32 water facilities were destroyed from January to May 2022, impacting nearly 300,000 people. Targeted attacks ranged from direct hits on water points and water trucks, purposeful contamination of water resources, to sabotaging public water network’s generators.

“Disrupting civilians’ access to water is no longer a mere by-product of the conflict; it has become a weapon of war and marks a new, despicable turn in violence. For the sake, dignity and survival of an already exhausted population, this war on water must stop,” said Hassane Hamadou, country director for the Norwegian Refugee Council in Burkina Faso, in a statement in May 2022.

More human beings are being displaced by force today than at any other time in humankind’s history. Such forced displacement is being further exacerbated by environmental impacts and climate change. More than 216 million people across six continents will be on the move within their countries by 2050 in large part due to climate change, according to the World Migration Report 2024 released by the United Nations in May 2024.

A 2021 report by the World Bank has projected that without tangible action on climate and development, millions of people across North Africa could be forced to move within their countries as a result of climate change. The report cited instances including Libya, which has still not recovered from the Arab Spring over a decade ago. Local militias have weaponised water scarcity, including using water infrastructure for leverage against the central government and other rivals.

Across Africa, the incidences of violence over water resources increased by around 34 per cent during 2022-23, according to the latest data from the Pacific Institute. There were at least 71 such incidents recorded in 2023 compared to 53 in 2022. From 2019-23, such conflicts increased by around 154 per cent.

In 2023, Africa reported the highest number of water-related conflicts and disputes since 2019, revealed an analysis of the world’s most comprehensive open-source database on water-related violence released August 26, 2024.

Disputes over water resources in sub-Saharan Africa rose by 27 per cent in a year. The number of events reported in the region increased to at least 56 in 2023 from 44 in 2022. It accounted for 79 per cent of all incidents reported in Africa in 2023. Northern Africa reported an increase by around 67 per cent during this period. In 2023, at least 15 events were reported from North Africa, compared to nine in 2022.

Latin America and the Caribbean, Southern Asia, Western Asia and sub-Saharan Africa were identified as regions of special concern in the Pacific Institute’s conflicts database for 2023. These regions have been hit by drought and unequal access to water resources.

For example, numerous water wells and infrastructure were destroyed, hundreds of people were killed and fights broke out over access to drinking water and grazing areas throughout the region between ethnic militias and clans in Somalia, Ethiopia, Burkina Faso, Mali and other countries.

At least two people were killed and twenty more injured as Kotoko farmers and Arab Choa herders fought over land and water in Makary, Goulfey, Amdagalgui and Ngouma (Logone-et-Chari, Far North, Cameroon) on October 6 and 7, 2023.

(This article is excerpted from the State of Africa’s Environment 2024 report. To read the full article, download the report free here)