Tobacco harm reduction will save 600,000 lives in Nigeria and Kenya by 2060: Report

Adopting a forward-thinking strategy towards tobacco harm reduction (THR) products in Nigeria and Kenya could save 600,000 lives by the year 2060, research by global public health experts have shown.

The report released November 19, 2024 noted that by integrating THR into traditional tobacco control measures, countries can drastically cut tobacco-related deaths.

Millions of lives can potentially be saved through less harmful smoke-free nicotine alternatives. As many as 26,851 people in Nigeria and 12,000 in Kenya die prematurely every year due to use of tobacco products.

Smoking is a major cause of ischaemic heart disease, stroke, tuberculosis and lung cancer deaths. THR products use nicotine without the deadly exposures that cause harm.

THR products such as e-cigarettes / vapes, heated tobacco products, snus, oral nicotine pouches and e-shisha products are rapidly gaining traction among consumers worldwide.

The use of THR products has already proven effective in reducing smoking rates in countries like Sweden, United Kingdom, United States and Japan. Across these nations, widespread adoption of e-cigarettes and other nicotine alternatives has resulted in marked declines in cigarette consumption, the leading cause of tobacco-related diseases.

By adopting THR strategies, the annual tobacco-related death toll could be reduced to 7,600 in Nigeria and 3,400 in Kenya by 2060, saving over 416,000 lives in Nigeria and 184,000 lives in Kenya in the process.

But these innovations have not yet been embraced by physicians and governments as key to cutting premature deaths.

Despite the full range of THR products being allowed in Nigeria and Kenya, their adoption by smokers who are unable to quit remains disappointingly low.

Kenya’s Proposed Tobacco Control (Amendment) Bill, 2024 aims to regulate harm-reduction products. Although this could be a step in the right direction, strict regulations might just have the opposite effect, averting Kenyans who have quit smoking using proven cessation methods back to harmful cigarette smoking.

The report called for urgent collaboration among governments, healthcare professionals and community leaders to make THR products accessible, affordable and effective, paving the way for a healthier, smoke-free future.

WHO projected that smoking prevalence in Kenya will decrease from 20.5 per cent in 2000 to 8.6 per cent in 2025 and for Nigeria from 94 per cent in 2000 to 26 per cent in 2025.

Although these forecasts are positive, the postponement in addressing smoking-related illnesses, disabilities, and early deaths in these African nations demands immediate intervention.

The research seeks to offer estimates on the benefits of THR, enhanced cessation programmes and better access to lung cancer diagnostics and treatment, measured by lives saved over the next 30 to 40 years, to national policymakers and public health experts.

The government needs local, high-quality research to fully understand the dynamics of the smoking epidemic in Nigeria and Kenya, including why smoking rates remain high and which interventions are most likely to succeed in reducing them. This should include a new approach into research of the risks and benefits of integrating harm reduction methods into tobacco control.