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El Nino has officially begun, with NOAA warning of a potentially ‘super’ event and IMD projecting below-normal monsoon rains for India.
Alarmed by a 60 per cent chance of deficient rainfall, the Centre has ordered a rapid overhaul of decade-old district contingency plans.
It is prioritising 150-200 vulnerable districts and detailing stage-wise crop and irrigation responses for the coming kharif season.
El Nino has officially begun. With the forecasters predicting a 63 per cent chance of sea-surface temperatures exceeding 2 degrees Celsius, the Indian government is expecting a significant impact on agriculture this year, and has launched an overhaul of its agricultural district contingency plans. It has placed between 150 and 200 districts on priority watch.
The United States National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) on the evening of June 11, 2026 declared that El Nino, the warm phase of the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), is now under way in the tropical Pacific. It is predicted to intensify to a moderate or strong level later this year, with scientists also forecasting a ‘super’ El Niño.
Meanwhile, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) had earlier projected below-normal rainfall, at 90 per cent of the long-period average during the southwest monsoon, on May 29. There is a 60 per cent chance of a deficient monsoon season which could mean many regions undergoing much drier than normal conditions or even droughts.
These estimates have raised alarm within the Union Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare, which has asked Indian Council of Agricultural Research (ICAR) and state agricultural universities and departments to revise contingency plans specifically for an El Niño year, before Kharif season peaks. The revised plans are expected to be submitted to the ministry by June 20.
“States already have district-level plans but those are at least 10 years old. This year, the situation is different and we need states to revise the plans specifically for this year’s El Nino situation,” a government official told Down To Earth.
Between 150 and 200 districts have been identified as most critical, based on IMD’s long-range forecast that showed the sharpest below-normal rainfall projections over the Marathwada-north Karnataka belt, with elevated risk across Rajasthan, Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, and parts of eastern Uttar Pradesh, Bihar and Jharkhand. Nearly the entire country, barring parts of Telangana and some coastal areas of south India, was expected to be affected to some degree.
The southwest monsoon is said to be below normal when the predicted rainfall for the season is 90-95 per cent long-period average (LPA) for the country. The LPA for the monsoon is defined as the average rainfall between 1971 and 2020 and is around 868.6 mm. When rainfall is below 90 per cent of LPA, it is a deficient monsoon season.
But officials say the IMD data is only one input; each district’s irrigation coverage, soil type, cropping pattern and groundwater access were also being factored in, to identify not just where rain will be less but where this below-normal rainfall will have the most impact in terms of causing drought and aggravating agricultural stress.
The contingency plans are also expected to detail stage-wise interventions for farmers — what to do if August rains fail, the month most critical for standing kharif crops. “What could be the choices of crop and what measures can be taken at different stages, it will be detailed. For example, what could be done if there is deficit rainfall in August. These measures are already there but we are updating those plans so that preparedness can be comprehensive for states to take action and advise farmers accordingly,” another senior official said.
Meanwhile, a multi-ministry task force — comprising officials from agriculture ministry, ICAR, socio-economic planning, and commerce and trade — was preparing a comprehensive picture of how El Niño will affect major crops, what alternative crops farmers can shift to, and from where India can import commodities if domestic supplies fall short. The plans are expected to be ready within ten to fifteen days, the official, who is part of the committee, told DTE.
The task force, which has 14 to 15 members, is also accounting for the possibility that the damage does not stop at this kharif season. “A sustained rainfall deficit could spill over into the rabi season and persist into next year, even if the IMD has not formally forecast it. It is already a complicated situation with fertiliser supply issue,” the official said.
Adding to the concern are reservoir levels, which are critical for irrigation in a below-normal monsoon year, especially for rabi crops. The report of the Central Water Commission, or CWC on May 14, showed that a total of 63.232 billion cubic metres of water was currently available in the country’s monitored reservoirs. This is about 24 per cent more than normal storage.
However, on April 30, 2026, a total of 71.082 billion cubic metres, or BCM, of water was available in the country’s 166 reservoirs. This was 38.72 per cent of their total capacity. By the May 14, report, this had fallen to 63.232 BCM, or only 34.45 per cent of total capacity. This means about 8 BCM of water decreased in just two weeks.
The timing is particularly damaging for India’s pulses and oilseeds missions, designed to reduce India’s dependency on imports for these two crop categories.
“Seeds have already been distributed to farmers. And roughly 90 per cent of the area under both crops is rainfed, leaving them almost entirely exposed to a weak monsoon. The mission is likely to be affected if there is significantly less rain,” the official noted.
Officials, however, caution against assuming that a strong El Niño automatically means agricultural catastrophe.
History offers a mixed record. In 2002, a moderate El Niño produced a 21 per cent national rainfall deficit. But in 2015, a very strong El Niño resulted in a deficit of only 13 per cent at the national level. Food grain reduction in the recent years, officials say, has historically been smaller than the rainfall numbers suggest, “partly because India’s farm systems are more resilient today; drought and heat-tolerant varieties are more widely available and crop management has improved.”
In fact, India has seen “record” food production in recent years, where every year the production surpasses the record of previous year. In the most recent El Niño episode in 2023-24, food grain production was 332.30 million tonnes, which was higher by 2.4 million tonnes than the production of food grains during 2022-23. In 2024-25, food grain production touched another record of 357.73 million tonnes.
However, while an overall food shortage may not happen, a strong El Niño can trigger a cascade of localised crises. Hyperlocal droughts can wipe out entire harvests in affected regions. Heat stress at critical crop stages can be devastating — as seen in 2022, when wheat shrivelled during the crucial February-March period due to temperature spike.
Rice, too, has shown vulnerability, falling prey to pests and diseases under heat stress. Cumulatively, such shocks, even if scattered, can tighten supplies, push up food prices and fuel food inflation.