Subscribe
Farm workers in high-income countries are projected to earn about 20 times more than those in South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa by 2035, according to the OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook.
Global agricultural production is expected to grow 13% over the next decade, but the gains will be unevenly shared across regions.
Agricultural workers in rich countries are projected to earn $22,155 a year by 2035, compared with about $1,100 in South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa.
The report warns that food security and nutrition gaps are likely to persist in low-income countries, even as direct agricultural greenhouse gas emissions rise.
Farm workers in high-income countries are projected to earn about 20 times more than agricultural workers in South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa by 2035, according to a new report by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) and Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO).
The OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2026-2035 projects that average gross agricultural income per worker in high-income countries will reach $22,155 by 2035. By comparison, agricultural workers in low-income regions of sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia are expected to earn only about $1,100 a year by then.
Global agricultural production is set to grow by 13 per cent over the next decade, the report finds. But the gains will be distributed unevenly, reflecting deep differences in productivity, mechanisation, land access, technology and investment.
Average gross agricultural income per worker is expected to rise by 9 per cent globally over the next decade, driven mainly by productivity improvements rather than higher prices. Real agricultural prices are projected to remain broadly stable, even as input costs rise.
The report puts global average agricultural labour productivity, measured as real gross income per farm worker, at $3,800 by 2035. But this average masks a widening gap. In high-income countries, agricultural labour productivity was estimated at just over $21,100 in 2023-25 and is expected to rise to $22,155 by 2035.
North America, Western Europe and Oceania are projected to record the highest output per worker. These regions are characterised by large landholdings, low labour input and highly mechanised production, the report says.
At the other end, agricultural workers in low-income regions of sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia currently earn about $930 a year on average. The report projects this will rise to only around $1,100 by 2035 — an increase of about $170 over the decade.
The projected 9 per cent rise in average incomes is far from secure. Given the historical volatility of agricultural markets, the report says there is a one-in-four chance that gross agricultural income per worker in 2035 could be at least 12 per cent lower than the projected baseline. In low-income countries, the potential shortfall could exceed 20 per cent.
This income divide is mirrored in food security and consumption patterns, the report finds. Despite ongoing efforts to promote healthier diets, excessive food consumption is likely to persist in wealthier countries, while low-income countries, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa, are expected to continue lagging in food security and nutrition, constrained by low household incomes and broader macroeconomic pressures.
The outlook assesses 10-year prospects for agricultural commodities and aquatic food markets at global, regional and national levels. It also warns that production gains could come with environmental costs.
Although productivity improvements are expected to drive most of the growth in agricultural output, some expansion of cropland and livestock numbers will still be needed. As a result, direct agricultural greenhouse gas emissions are projected to rise by 6.5 per cent over the decade.
Livestock, reflecting growing herd sizes, is expected to account for about 77 per cent of that increase. Synthetic fertilisers, through higher nitrous oxide emissions, are expected to contribute the remaining 23 per cent.
“The policy challenge is to accelerate sustainable productivity growth and close technology gaps, enabling emissions to grow more slowly or even decline relative to current values. This must be achieved while ensuring global food security and better nutrition outcomes for a growing population with evolving dietary preferences,” the report said.