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By 2047, India’s aggregate food demand is projected to exceed twice the current demand, whereas the demand for nutrient-rich foods, including horticultural and animal products, is expected to increase three to four times. However, agricultural land needed to meet this increased food demand is expected to shrink to 176 million hectares (mha) from the current 180 mha, according to an analysis by ICAR-National Institute of Agricultural Economics and Policy Research (ICAR-NIAP).
To sustain these projected changes, the researchers have called for reallocation of resources from traditional staples to more diverse and nutritionally rich commodities.
“Fruits, vegetables, pulses, and oilseeds are key crops that require increased focus to meet the changing dietary preferences and nutritional needs. Simultaneously, the gradual reallocation of resources from rice and wheat to alternative crops is crucial,” the authors said.
The Indian economy must grow at an annual rate of approximately eight per cent to achieve the status of a developed nation by the year 2047, the centennial year of independence. At the same time, the country’s population is expected to reach 1.6 billion with nearly half of Indians residing in urban areas.
“This evolving economic and demographic landscape is expected to precipitate further shifts in dietary patterns and the demand for diverse foods, especially nutrient-rich horticultural and animal products,” stated the policy paper titled Indian Agriculture to 2047-Reshaping Policies for Sustainable Development.
It found that by 2047, the demand for fruits is projected to increase to 233 million tons at an annual rate of 3 per cent and for vegetables to 365 million tons at an annual rate of 2.3 per cent. Similarly, the demand for pulses is anticipated to double to 49 million tons and the demand for edible oils and sugar is also projected to increase by 50 per cent and 29 per cent respectively.
But on the other hand, the average size of landholding is expected to decrease significantly to 0.6 ha from approximately one hectare now. Farmers may also encounter difficulties in achieving economies of scale. This is likely to affect the economic viability of agriculture and agriculture-based livelihoods.
With the net sown area also decreasing to 138 million ha, the cropping intensity will likely increase to 170 per cent from the current 156 per cent.
However, this intensification of crop land is bound to have environmental consequences, with increased pressure on already strained water and energy resources. Agriculture is a major consumer of water (83 per cent), and by 2047, its demand will be approximately 18 per cent higher than its current use, warned the paper.
In this context, the paper suggested that these projected changes will need a “strategic shift” in the agrifood system—enhance the production of specific crops or reallocate resources from traditional staples to more diverse and nutritionally rich commodities to prevent commodity imbalances.
Projections also indicated an increase in the contribution of livestock to the gross value of agricultural output to 39 per cent from the current 31 per cent, and of fisheries to 10 per cent from 7 per cent.
Another significant analysis by the paper was the impact of climate change on agriculture — over the past five decades, extreme climate events such as droughts, heat waves, and floods have reduced India’s agricultural productivity growth by approximately 25 per cent.
“As the frequency of such events is projected to increase, they will adversely affect crop yields and food supplies, potentially impacting the nation’s food and nutritional security,” it said.