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Madhya Pradesh has recorded almost three times more paddy stubble burning incidents than Punjab in 2025, according to data. An analysis by Down To Earth (DTE) shows that rising precipitation in the state is making farmers grow more paddy, consequently leading to an increase in stubble fires.
According to the dashboard of the Consortium for Research on Agroecosystem Monitoring and Modelling from Space (CREAMS) of the Indian Council of Agricultural Research’s Indian Agricultural Research Institute (IARI) in New Delhi, a total of 14,708 stubble burning incidents were recorded in Madhya Pradesh from September 15 to November 26, 2025. Meanwhile, Punjab recorded 5,095 incidents.
According to data, stubble burning has been recorded in 47 districts of Madhya Pradesh this year. Six districts — Sheopur, Datia, Hoshangabad, Jabalpur, Gwalior, and Seoni — have recorded more than 1,000 stubble burning incidents. These districts are also the districts with the highest number of stubble burning incidents in the six states of North India – Punjab, Haryana, Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, and Delhi. Among these, Sheopur ranks first, with the highest number (2,439) of stubble burning incidents. Last year too, this district of Madhya Pradesh topped the list with 2,508 such incidents.
While Tarn Taran, Sangrur, Ferozepur, Muktsar, Bathinda, Moga, and Amritsar are among the 22 districts in Punjab that are most likely to record stubble burning, no other district has recorded more than 1,000 stubble burning incidents. Tarn Taran, the district with the highest stubble burning rate, also recorded 696 stubble burning incidents.
A comparative study of the changing picture of Punjab and Madhya Pradesh reveals that while on one hand there has been a huge reduction in the incidents of stubble burning in Punjab, their trend continues to increase in Madhya Pradesh.
In December 2024, DTE visited Sheopur district in Madhya Pradesh, which has the highest stubble burning rate, to find out why stubble burning incidents are increasing rapidly Madhya Pradesh.
DTE found that the primary reason was the spike in paddy cultivation and a lack of proper management of stubble in Sheopur. Hariom Yadav, 50, a resident of Silpuri village of Karahal block, said the shift towards paddy has happened very fast in his village. In Silpuri, till five to six years ago, the main Kharif crops in the village were soybean and black gram, which are now being grown in only 30 per cent of the fields. The remaining 70 per cent area is under paddy.
Of the total 165,000 hectares in the district, the area under paddy increased from 43,127 hectares in 2018-19 to 65,610 hectares in 2022-23. S L Gurjar, chief scientist at the Krishi Vigyan Kendra in Baroda block, told DTE, “The area under paddy is around 85,000 hectares in 2024. It is estimated to reach around 100,000 hectares in 2025.” On the other hand, the area under soybean decreased from 20,865 hectares in 2018-19 to 17,789 hectares in 2022-23.
Data from the Sheopur Mandi Committee showed that 2,514 quintals of paddy arrived in the wholesale market in 2018-19. This increased to 12,40,225 quintals in 2023-24. Meanwhile, the volume of soybean arriving during this period decreased from 95,198 quintals to 7,197 quintals. The volume of urad, another important Kharif crop, arriving in the mandi also decreased from 43,669 quintals to 2,148 quintals during this time. Jowar (sorghum) arriving at the mandi also decreased from 2,078 quintals to 862 quintals, and sesame decreased from 10,296 quintals to 9,337 quintals.
The primary reason for Sheopur farmers’ inclination toward rice cultivation is the availability of water. Gurjar said the district is receiving good monsoon rainfall, with precipitation exceeding the normal by 100 per cent in recent years. Meteorological Department data also shows that Sheopur received 116 per cent more rainfall than normal in 2025. Similarly, in the 2024 monsoon season, Sheopur received a total of 1,323 mm of rainfall, 99 per cent more than the normal 666 mm. In 2024, Sheopur received the highest rainfall of any district in Madhya Pradesh. In 2023, rainfall was two per cent above normal. Prior to this, the district recorded over 1,000 mm of monsoon rainfall in 2022, and 100 per cent more than normal in 2021.
While there is more rainfall, the occurrence of more rain in fewer days is also contributing to the growth of paddy, according to experts. There has been a strong shift towards paddy cultivation in districts where there have been more incidents of unexpected and extreme rainfall. According to farmers, this type of rainfall is not conducive to soybean and black gram. Because of this, farmers are prioritising paddy over traditional crops. Gurjar explained, “Soybean has been badly hit in the last four to five years due to excessive rainfall. It is not giving anything to farmers, and about 60 per cent of black gram has also been getting spoiled. At present, no crop can compete with paddy in terms of profit.”
Like Sheopur, most districts in Madhya Pradesh have seen an increase in the area under paddy and a decrease in the area under soybean and urad.
According to data from the state’s Farmers Welfare and Agricultural Development Department, the area under paddy in the state in 2019 was 2.8 million hectares (mha). For urad, this figure was 2.4 mha, and soybean approximately 5.5 mha.
Latest data from the Crop Division of the Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare shows that by 2024, the area under paddy in the state will increase to 3.6 mha. For urad, this number will be 0.98 mha, and soybean 0.538 mha.
State government data shows that in the five years from 2018-19 to 2022-23, the area under paddy has increased in 39 of Madhya Pradesh’s 52 districts, while a decrease has been recorded in 12 districts. In some districts, the increase in acreage has been two to three times. Meanwhile, soybean acreage has declined in 20 districts of the state. In the districts where soybean acreage has increased, the increase is very limited compared to paddy.
Stubble burning incidents are being recorded in Sheopur as well as those districts of Madhya Pradesh that are shifting towards paddy cultivation. According to a farmer from Sheopur, farming is difficult without burning stubble. The soil here is hard. So, wheat has to be planted early. There are barely 10 days between harvesting paddy and sowing wheat. In such a situation, burning stubble is a compulsion for farmers.
Ajay Yadav, a social activist from Jaknaund village in Sheopur’s neighboring district of Shivpuri, sees the growing trend of paddy cultivation in Madhya Pradesh as a warning signal. He said if the trend continued, Madhya Pradesh could face a groundwater and pollution crisis similar to Punjab in the future.