Hudhud strikes, what happens next?

After battering coastal Andhra Pradesh with high speed rains and winds, Hudhud will move through neighbouring states

 
By Akshay Deoras
Published: Sunday 07 June 2015

After battering coastal Andhra Pradesh with high speed rains and winds, Hudhud will move through neighbouring states

On the first anniversary of Cyclone Phailin, Cyclone Hudhud made a landfall on Sunday near Visakhapatnam (Vizag) around 11 am. In an update given by US’ Joint Typhoon Warning Centre (JTWC), maximum wind speed of Cyclone Hudhud at 11.30 am (during the landfall) was 115 knot (close to 213km/hr) and gusting to 140 knot (around 260km/hr). The official report from India Meteorological Department will be out soon but initial estimates suggest that wind speed recorded in Vizag touched as high as 190km/hr during the landfall period.

The latest satellite image suggests that the eyewall (portion of strongest rains and winds) is exiting the coastal areas—it is eroding and moving inwards and, hence, the conditions along coastal Andhra Pradesh and coastal Odisha will be improving Sunday evening onwards although rainfall will continue till Monday, causing large-scale flooding in affected areas of Andhra Pradesh and Odisha.

On land, cyclone weakens

Hudhud’s path post landfall as estimated by US’ JTWC

Cyclone Hudhud would have started weakening now as it has exited the sea and is interacting with land. The projected path of Hudhud will be north-west, which will take it (its core) through areas like Chattisgarh, eastern parts of Maharashtra and eastern Madhya Pradesh, where it will die out—it will no longer be strong enough to be classified on the scale.

Most of the areas in Chattisgarh (especially southern parts of the state) will be receiving heavy rains and very strong winds from the evening of Sunday as Hudhud nears. This will lead to more uprooting of trees, power lines, and damage to huts. As a result of heavy rains, areas in southern Chattisgarh will get inundated. Weather conditions will improve from late night hours of Monday. Northern Chattisgarh will be relatively less affected.

Rainfall and strong winds will spread in eastern Maharashtra (Vidarbha) on Monday. Good amount of rainfall along with powerful winds (able to damage some trees, power lines) will be experienced on Monday in the region.

72hr projected rainfall due to Hudhud as per NCEP’s HWRF model. Courtesy HWRF/NCEP.


The Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting (HWRF) model, which had forecast the intensity of Hudhud very correctly, has given estimates of how much rainfall can be expected along the path of weakened system Hudhud—along with Chattisgarh and eastern Maharashtra, the eastern half of Madhya Pradesh will also get heavy rains (model forecasts up to 100 mm rains in total) till Wednesday, October 15. Western Uttar Pradesh will also get heavy rains (up to 50mm as per the model) from later hours briefly on Tuesday.

Warning for Uttarakhand, Nepal


Chances of heavy rains and subsequent landslides seem to be rising for western half of Nepal on Tuesday, October 14. Weather models are indicating a western disturbance approaching India (should be to the west of Jammu and Kashmir on this day as per the present model). The timings of the western disturbance and the remnants of cyclone Hudhud are being monitored to see how adversely that can affect western Nepal, and possibly Uttarakhand as HWRF model has been consistently indicating heavy rains here. Hence, people in Uttarakhand must follow weather updates on this.

Hudhud effects (rains and winds) will completely dissipate in India from Wednesday, October 15, 2014.


Akshay Deoras is an independent weather forecaster.

 

Subscribe to Weekly Newsletter :

Comments are moderated and will be published only after the site moderator’s approval. Please use a genuine email ID and provide your name. Selected comments may also be used in the ‘Letters’ section of the Down To Earth print edition.