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If countries implement their latest climate plans, global greenhouse gas emissions in 2025 could reach around 53 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (Gt CO2e), 54 per cent higher than in 1990 and at a similar level to 2019, a United Nations report has indicated, emphasising the need for greater ambition in climate action.
By 2030, climate plans could reduce total greenhouse gas emissions by 2.8 per cent from 2025 levels, bringing them down to 51.5 Gt CO2e, said the paper published by UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) on nationally determined contributions (NDC) under the Paris Agreement. Both 2025 and 2030 estimates exclude emissions from land use, land-use change and forestry.
The Paris Agreement, signed in 2016, aims to keep global temperatures below 2 degrees Celsius while aiming for 1.5 degrees. To achieve these goals, countries update their pledges, or NDCs, every five years, outlining their plans to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.
The latest UNFCCC report analysed 168 updated NDCs submitted by 195 signatories to the Paris Agreement.
The latest projections are approximately 50 per cent higher than emissions in 1990. Although it represents a 2.6 per cent reduction compared to 2019, this figure shows an increase relative to previous estimates. For comparison, the 2023 report estimated that NDCs could reduce global emissions by 2 per cent in 2030 compared to 2019.
This means to avoid severe climate impacts, countries would need to achieve a 43 per cent reduction by 2030.
If all NDCs were implemented until 2030, global mean temperatures could still rise between 2.1°C and 2.8°C by 2100. The report highlighted that fewer than half of countries have integrated their NDC targets and policies into national legislation, regulatory and planning processes to support implementation.
Additionally, only 50 per cent of signatories have set long-term visions, strategies and goals extending to 2050 and beyond. If countries achieve both their NDCs and long-term commitments (Long-Term Low Emission Development Strategy or LT-LEDS), emissions could be reduced by 63 per cent by 2050 compared to 2019, with annual per capita emissions falling to 2.4 tonnes of CO2 equivalent. However, to meet the 1.5°C target, per capita emissions would need to be two to three times lower, at 1.3 t CO2e.
The report also acknowledges oceans as a critical area for climate action. As oceans absorb more heat due to greenhouse gases, sea surface temperatures and sea levels are rising. Currently, 21 per cent of countries include ocean or blue carbon strategies in their climate priorities, with 71 per cent of these countries outlining specific ocean-based mitigation measures.
Regarding adaptation, 81 per cent of Parties provided adaptation-related information, with 13 per cent identifying adaptation as a primary component of their NDC and an additional 9 per cent planning future adaptation communications.
Carbon markets also feature prominently in the report, with 78 per cent of signatories planning to use Article 6 of the Paris Agreement to facilitate NDC implementation, up from 76 and 77 per cent in 2022 and 2023, respectively. Article 6 enables carbon credits trading, which represents one tonne of CO2 reduced or removed, through initiatives like shifting to renewable energy or conserving carbon stocks in forests.
The upcoming 29th Conference of Parties (COP29) to the UNFCCC in Baku, Azerbaijan (November 11-22, 2024), will aim to strengthen global emissions trading regulations under Article 6.
Significant financial resources will be necessary to implement these climate plans, with 91 per cent of countries including finance as part of their NDCs. Of these, 69 per cent require international support, while 24 per cent rely on domestic financing alone.
Furthermore, 82 per cent of countries with updated NDCs included both unconditional and conditional targets, contingent on external support. The report found that 15 per cent more Parties mentioned unconditional elements in their new or updated NDCs than in previous ones.
Only 46 per cent of countries provided quantitative financial estimates for their plans — often expressed as total amounts over the time frame of the NDC.
Countries are expected to submit their third round of NDCs in early 2025, which will detail their intended climate actions through 2035. UNFCCC urged countries to come up with ambitious new emissions targets that are economy-wide, covering all greenhouse gases to keep the 1.5°C target alive.
It also stressed that these targets must be supported by substantive regulations, laws and funding to ensure that goals are met and plans are implemented, as well as detailing adaptation priorities and investments to protect critical sectors, infrastructure and people from climate impacts, as well as supporting and aligning with National Adaptation Plan processes.
“Though India is likely to achieve its NDCs, the government needs to make more ambitious pledges,” Minal Pathak, associate professor at Global Centre for Environment and Energy, Ahmedabad University, told Down To Earth.
“If you give a less ambitious NDC, we will likely achieve it. India being one of the largest emitters and as one of the low per capita emitters, should take this as an opportunity to take leadership in climate action and come up with sectoral targets,” she added.
India should identify the means of implementation and determine the investments needed — both for achieving deep emissions cuts and also financing adaptation, which is now increasingly becoming urgent, Pathak stated.
