A 1 degree C rise in temperature leads to an additional 70 million people becoming food insecure: World Food Programme

A new analysis published by the World Food Programme (WFP) projects that a one-degree Celsius rise in temperature leads to an additional 70 million people becoming food insecure across 45 countries.

The analysis looks at the link between local temperature change and food insecurity directly.

The model uses Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) assessment data describing the prevalence of food insecurity — the proportion of a country’s population that is classified as IPC 3 or greater, at the date the assessment. IPC 3 population refers to people experiencing crisis-level food insecurity.

The dataset includes 393 assessments over 45 countries between 2017 and 2025.

The analysis highlights how gradual global warming, distinct from extreme weather events, incrementally drives food insecurity.

Global warming is represented by an increase in the global average temperature, which in turn influences and alters the climate and which then, in turn, can influence each of the drivers of food insecurity.

According to the analysis, a scenario where the 45 countries would have a zero-degree Celsius anomaly simultaneously would see about 252 million people in food insecurity. This estimate jumps to 322 million in a +1 degree Celsius anomaly scenario.

A zero-degree Celsius temperature anomaly means that the observed temperature is exactly equal to the long-term average temperature for that specific location and time period.

The increase in a country’s food insecurity, given a 1-degree Celsius temperature increase, is a measure of that country’s temperature sensitivity.

According to the analysis, Haiti and Yemen show the largest temperature sensitivities, where a +1 degree Celsius temperature anomaly could lead to eight per cent increase in the share of food insecure population.  

The analysis highlights that the Eastern Africa region shows more than double the temperature sensitivity of the Western Africa region.

In this study, only two countries were analysed in Southern Asia — Afghanistan and Pakistan. While Afghanistan shows a larger temperature sensitivity, regional numbers are heavily influenced by Pakistan which has a population more than five times larger than that of Afghanistan.

The Caribbean and Northern Africa regions both show relatively large temperature sensitivities when looking at the increase in the share of food insecure population.

Achieving food security and environmental sustainability requires a balanced evaluation of agricultural productivity, resource efficiency, ecosystem health, and climate resilience.

At a time when the global population is expected to rise to nearly 9.7 billion by 2050, food systems are under increasing pressure—particularly in regions already facing structural weaknesses.