Subscribe
Africa is facing its deadliest climate crisis in over a decade, with the period between 2021 and 2025 emerging as the most devastating five-year stretch in terms of human toll from weather, climate and water-related disasters.
An analysis by Down To Earth (DTE), based on publicly available data from the Emergency Events Database (EM-DAT) international disaster database, shows that at least 221.57 million people were affected during this five-year period, more than the combined totals from 2011-2015 and 2016-2020. Disaster-related deaths rose to 28,759, over three times the number recorded between 2016 and 2020. These figures, based on data available up to May 2025, are likely to rise further by year-end.
The continent experienced a series of extreme weather events, including droughts, floods, cyclones, landslides, cold waves and heatwaves. These recent events alone account for 54 per cent of the over 412 million people impacted by such disasters across Africa since 2011.
Droughts were by far the most significant hazard, affecting 178 million people or more than 81 per cent of those impacted between 2021 and 2025. Floods affected roughly 14 per cent and storms or cyclones impacted around 4.7 per cent.
The Horn of Africa bore the brunt of the crisis. Five consecutive failed rainy seasons in Ethiopia, Somalia and Kenya resulted in the worst drought in the region in 70 years by January 2023, the United Nations found in a recent report. The situation worsened in 2024 with another severe drought across southern Africa and the Zambezi basin, exacerbated by a strong El Niño that began in late 2023.
As of May 2025, drought had affected 4.4 million people in Somalia (notably in Gedo, Hiran, Bay, Bakool, Mudug, Bari, Togdheer, Galguduud, Sool, Awdal, Nugaal, Sanaag and Woqooyi Galbeed), showed EM-DAT data. A further 2.1 million people were impacted in Kenya (including Wajir, Kilifi, Kwale, Garissa, Mandera, Marsabit, Turkana, Samburu and Baringo).
Between 2021 and 2025, just five countries accounted for over 51 per cent of all people affected by disasters in Africa, DTE analysis found. Ethiopia saw the highest numbers, with 33.1 million people affected, meaning a 17-fold increase. The Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) followed closely, with 28.5 million affected, representing a 42-fold surge from 660,755 in the previous five-year period (2016-2020).
Nigeria recorded 23.7 million affected, a nearly tenfold rise, while Somalia experienced 15.6 million affected — 3.65 times more than before. In Sudan, the number rose to 12.8 million, marking a nearly eightfold increase.
Notably, three of these five most impacted countries are in East Africa. Southern African nations such as South Africa, Malawi and Zambia also recorded alarming spikes. For instance, South Africa saw 12.2 million people affected, 16 times higher than in the previous five years.
Disaster-related deaths in Africa have risen dramatically over the past 15 years, highlighting the continent’s growing vulnerability to climate-related and other natural hazards. Between 2011 and 2015, recorded deaths stood at 4,684. This number rose sharply to 8,106 between 2016 and 2020, a 73 per cent increase. The most recent period, from 2021 to 2025, has seen a staggering 28,759 deaths, marking more than a threefold rise compared to the previous five years.
This means nearly 69 per cent of disaster-related deaths recorded since 2011 occurred in the last five years alone. The analysis confirmed not just a rise in frequency and intensity, but also the deadliness of climate-linked disasters, particularly for vulnerable populations lacking adequate resilience infrastructure.
Libya is among the 21 countries where disaster-related deaths accounted for over 50 per cent of all recorded deaths between 2011 and 2025. Libya alone accounted for 13,205 deaths, 46 per cent of the total recorded across Africa between 2021 and 2025.
This was largely due to the catastrophic Derna floods of September 10, 2023, widely regarded as one of the continent’s most lethal weather disasters in recent memory. The event made North Africa the region with the highest death toll during the period.
The DRC also witnessed a sharp rise in fatalities, from 543 (2016-2020) to 3,876 deaths in 2021-2025, a sevenfold increase. Similarly, Malawi reported a 16-fold increase, mostly due to flooding.
With the EM-DAT data current only up to May 2025, the final toll for the year may be higher. Yet, even the existing figures are sobering.
The report suggested that this mounting toll is not merely a function of extreme weather. It signals widening gaps in disaster risk reduction, emergency response and climate adaptation planning across the continent.
This analysis is based on data available up to May 2025 —which means that the the true extent of impacts could be even greater by the year’s end. With over 221 million people affected and nearly 29,000 lives lost in just five years, the continent’s rising exposure to climate and weather extremes is a worrying reality.
It must be noted that the mounting human toll is not just a consequence of extreme weather, it is a signal of institutional gaps in risk reduction, emergency response and long-term adaptation planning.
Despite the urgency, the latest ND-GAIN Index ranks most African countries poorly on readiness to cope with climate impacts. Among the worst performers are the Central African Republic, Chad, Congo, Zimbabwe and the DRC. The index defines “readiness” as a country’s ability to attract and deploy investments for climate adaptation, measured across economic, governance and social indicators.
