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As negotiators gather at the Bonn Climate Conference (SB64) between June 8 and 18, 2026, to lay the groundwork for COP31, diplomats, climate experts and policymakers in India warn that geopolitical tensions, energy security concerns and persistent gaps in climate finance are threatening to push climate action down the global agenda.
They, at a recent discussion ‘The Climate Conundrum: Global Geopolitics and Missed Opportunities’ by The Energy and Resources Institute (TERI), on June 8, argued that the world is entering a more fragmented geopolitical era just as climate impacts intensify, raising concerns about whether countries can mobilise the finance, technology and political will needed to meet global climate goals.
The debate comes at a critical moment. COP31, to be jointly hosted by Australia and Türkiye later this year, is expected to focus on accelerating the clean energy transition, mobilising climate finance, growing green industries and elevating the priorities of climate-vulnerable countries, particularly in the Pacific.
Meanwhile, UN Climate Change executive secretary Simon Stiell at the Bonn Climate Conference on June 8 urged governments to focus on implementation rather than revisiting old divisions. Calling climate change "the hardest, but most important, thing humanity has ever tried to do together", he warned against reopening past debates and stressed the need to accelerate action as intensifying heat and the fossil fuel cost crisis triggered by the Iran war strain economies worldwide. Stiell also called for elevating the Global Climate Action Agenda, with COP31 hosts Australia and Türkiye expected to focus efforts on six thematic areas, including energy security, food systems, methane reduction and urban resilience.
Australia, which will co-host COP31 with Türkiye, says rebuilding trust among countries will be central to the summit's success. Carly Partridge, minister counsellor at the Australian High Commission in New Delhi, said the presidency's priorities include accelerating the global clean energy transition, mobilising finance and investment, growing green industries and ensuring vulnerable Pacific nations remain at the centre of discussions. She emphasised that climate negotiations must move beyond confrontation and focus on collaboration.
"Listen. Find common ground. Understand. Look for solutions. Trust and respect. That is the characteristics and qualities that we wish to bring to our COP," Partridge said. She also underscored India's importance to global climate efforts, noting Australia's growing cooperation with India on solar deployment, renewable energy and critical minerals.
Suruchi Bhadwal, director, Earth Science and Climate Change division at TERI and an Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change author, said the world remains far from achieving the emissions reductions required to limit global warming.
Global temperatures continue to rise, accompanied by worsening heatwaves, floods, droughts and extreme rainfall events across regions. Current policies and net zero commitments remain insufficient even for a 2°C pathway, she noted. Nearly half the world's population, or around 3.6 billion people, remains vulnerable to climate impacts.
Bhadwal highlighted climate finance as a persistent bottleneck. "Finance has always been limited to be able to help us with the problems that we face. We do not have enough resources for the kind of climate action we are talking about that is needed by the world today," she said, adding that all countries require finance, technology and capacity building to implement climate solutions.
The issue is likely to dominate discussions in Bonn and later at COP31, particularly as developing countries continue to demand greater support for mitigation, adaptation and resilience building.
A key concern emerging from the discussions was the extent to which geopolitical shifts are crowding out climate priorities. Bhadwal noted that the world is moving from a highly globalised order to a more fragmented, multipolar system shaped by conflicts, energy security concerns, technology competition, artificial intelligence, semiconductor races and efforts to reduce external dependencies.
India is navigating this increasingly complex environment while balancing development needs, energy security concerns and climate commitments.
Rising crude oil prices, supply chain disruptions and global conflicts have shifted attention towards immediate economic and strategic priorities, creating risks that climate action could lose momentum.
Former environment, forest and climate change secretary Leena Nandan stressed that climate change remains a global public good challenge that cannot be addressed within national boundaries alone.
"Nature knows no boundaries. These are artificial constructs. The issue of public good, of global good, somewhere has got completely relegated to the background," she said.
For India, climate negotiations remain inseparable from development imperatives. Acquino Vimal, joint secretary, Ministry of External Affairs, who oversees India's engagement with the economic and social branches of the United Nations, said climate talks have progressed slowly because countries continue to negotiate from sharply different economic realities and priorities.
"Everybody keeps saying that there is no success in climate change if India does not deliver. But then what does that mean? Should we stay at this level of 3,000 per capita income? Is that what the world wants India to do?" he asked.
Vimal argued that developing countries cannot be expected to increase climate ambition without adequate finance, technology transfer and capacity building.
"There is always this push that let's be more ambitious. But ambitious for what?" he said, stressing that climate action and development must move together.
He warned that climate conversations often become disconnected from practical implementation challenges, particularly financing.
"When the conversation happens, they say, where is the money? Where is the profit? Where are my returns on investment?" he said.
Despite frustrations over international negotiations, they pointed to India's renewable energy expansion as evidence that climate action can be aligned with economic growth. Ajay Shankar, former secretary, department of industrial policy and promotion and a distinguished fellow at TERI described India's solar programme as one of the country's most successful policy interventions.
When the National Solar Mission was launched, solar electricity cost more than four times conventional power, and the target was 20,000 megawatts by 2020. India has since built around 150,000 megawatts of solar capacity and added 40,000 megawatts in the last year alone, largely through private investment.
According to Shankar, the success came from policies that reduced investment risks and provided long-term certainty to investors. "Indian policy succeeded in de-risking investment by assuring prices and returns to investors," he said.
He argued that similar approaches could help scale emerging sectors such as green hydrogen and low-carbon manufacturing.
The discussion highlighted a central challenge facing climate diplomacy ahead of COP31. While climate targets and declarations have multiplied over the past decade, implementation remains constrained by insufficient finance, competing geopolitical priorities and disagreements over responsibility sharing.
Diplomats, climate experts and policymakers on the panel repeatedly pointed to the gap between negotiation outcomes and action on the ground, arguing that future climate conferences must focus less on new pledges and more on delivery.
They argued that the next phase of global climate action must prioritise practical solutions, including scaling renewable energy, de-risking private investment, expanding grant-based finance and strengthening technology transfer.
For India and many developing countries, the path forward lies in integrating climate action with development goals rather than treating them as competing priorities. At the same time, developed countries face growing pressure to fulfil long-standing commitments on climate finance and implementation support.