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The whole Hindu Kush Himalayan (HKH) region will experience temperatures up to 2ºC hotter than average in addition to above-average rainfall this summer monsoon, warned a new analysis of global and national meteorological agencies’ data released by the International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD) on June 11, 2025.
“The forecasts we’ve studied are unanimous in predicting a hotter monsoon across the entire HKH, with a trend towards higher-than-normal rainfall in major parts of HKH,” a statement quoted Arun Bhakta Shrestha, senior advisor at ICIMOD and one of the reviewers of the outlook.
The report pointed to temperature rise in nearly all countries across the HKH region including Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, Tibet (China), Myanmar, Nepal and Pakistan.
But it is the probability of a wetter monsoon across the region that is especially worrying.
The countries of India, Nepal, and Pakistan as well as China’s Tibetan Autonomous Region are expected to receive above-average rainfall, as per the report.
“Strong probability that southwest monsoon seasonal precipitation will be above normal,” the report says about India. The same is the forecast for Nepal.
In Pakistan, home to the bulk of the Indus Plain, “normal to slightly above normal precipitation projected, with significant increases anticipated in northern Punjab, southern Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, northern and southwestern Balochistan,” said the report.
There are also places which will experience below average rainfall. For instance, Afghanistan will experience “below average rainfall June-September with severe dryness likely in the west”.
In Pakistan, below-normal precipitation is expected in northern Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and western Gilgit-Baltistan (Pakistan Occupied Kashmir).
The summer monsoon is the major source of precipitation in the HKH region. It has significant impacts on both the hydrology of the region’s rivers as well as on the region’s hazard risk, with intense or prolonged exposure to monsoon rainfall a key driver of increased risks of flash floods, debris floods, landslides, and glacial lake outburst floods.
The report sounded a call to the region to brace “for a possible rise in climate risks and impacts on societies, economies, and ecosystems”, given that close to three-quarters (72.5 per cent) of all floods from 1980 to 2024 have occurred during the summer monsoon season.
“Rising temperatures and more extreme rain raise the risk of water-induced disasters such as floods, landslides, and debris flows, and have longer-term impacts on glaciers, snow reserves, and permafrost. Lower rainfall, meanwhile, particularly in water-stressed countries such as Afghanistan, may pose risks to food and water security in a country with already extraordinarily high levels of malnutrition.”
“Given the extremely high exposure and risks in our region, we urgently need impact-based early warning systems adopted at scale, and for government and donor support to build up disaster preparedness to increase,” the statement quoted Saswata Sanyal, manager of ICIMOD’s Disaster Risk Reduction work.
Temperature rise, combined with wetter monsoons, can also raise the risk of heat stress and waterborne disease outbreaks, such as dengue, according to experts.
“South Asia has been wetter than average in recent years, except 2023, a major report from the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) issued last month confirmed. The organisation forecasts that this trend will continue until 2029,” the statement noted.
The report, produced by ICIMOD’s Climate and Environmental Risks group, provides a synthesis of predictions from global and regional meteorological bodies including the South Asian Climate Outlook Forum (SACOF), the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Climate Centre (APCC), the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI), Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) and national agencies.