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More than 1.5 billion people experienced at least a month of risky heat between June and August 2026, with those temperatures made significantly more likely by human-induced climate change, according to a new analysis by research group Climate Central. India accounted for 117 million people exposed to at least 30 such days, among the highest totals recorded globally.
Europe, meanwhile, was the most unusually hot region relative to its historical climate. Nearly nine in 10 Europeans, or 89 per cent of the population, experienced at least a month of risky heat during the three-month period, while France and the Holy See (Vatican) recorded temperatures averaging 3.5 degrees Celsius above their historical norms, followed by Andorra and Switzerland.
Prolonged heat contributed to record-breaking wildfires, widespread drought and additional pressure on emergency and health services in several regions.
The analysis used Climate Central’s Climate Shift Index (CSI) to estimate how much more likely climate change made daily temperatures between June 1 and August 31. It defined “risky heat days” as days hotter than 90 per cent of temperatures historically experienced in a local area during the same time of year between 1991 and 2020.
“This represents the point at which health risks from heat begin to climb,” said Climate Central.
“On any given day this season, more than one-quarter of the world’s population felt a strong influence of climate change on local temperatures, primarily caused by the burning of fossil fuels. This resulted in heatwaves across the globe and dangerous conditions to human health,” it said.
Across 203 countries, the average person experienced at least 30 days with a strong climate change influence during the three-month period. Fifty-four countries also recorded their hottest June-August period in the 1970-2026 record, including France, Italy and the United Kingdom.
Meanwhile, Asia had the largest number of people exposed to climate change-driven heat. Around 2.8 billion people, or 58 per cent of the continent’s population, experienced at least 30 days of risky heat.
India led among Asian countries with 117 million people exposed to at least 30 additional risky heat days linked to climate change, followed by China with 94 million and Indonesia with 83 million.
“Our analysis reveals a scary global pattern: whether it is nine in ten Europeans enduring risky heat, hundreds of millions impacted across Asia and Africa, or relentless record-breaking temperatures in North America, human-driven warming is pushing communities beyond safe physical limits,” said Kristina Dahl, vice-president for science at Climate Central. “These past three months are a warning sign we cannot afford to ignore – the human and economic costs of fossil fuels are playing out in real time, and the urgency to shift away from them has never been clearer.”
In Africa, the climate change signal persisted through much of the season, with six countries experiencing temperatures strongly influenced by climate change on at least 95 per cent of the days analysed. In this period, Rwanda recorded 91 such days, Uganda 89 and Ethiopia 88.
Simon Stiell, executive secretary of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, said the findings showed the growing human and economic costs of extreme heat.
“Over a billion people facing an extra month of health-threatening heat shows again the spiraling costs of the climate crisis, caused by humanity’s addiction to burning coal, oil and gas. Lives and livelihoods are being wrecked on a huge scale, health systems are under pressure, businesses are struggling, and all economies are paying the price. But the solutions are clear: Shifting faster from fossil fuels to clean energy, which are cheaper and safer, building climate resilience and protecting forests,” he said.