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Will Donald Trump 2.0 be better than Donald Trump 1.0, when it comes responding to global climate change? Most climate pundits do not expect any better this time despite accepting that the world has moved on a lot since he assumed his first presidency in 2017 and, subsequently, stormed out of the global climate negotiation process.
Even the United States has been battered with a flurry of extreme weather events linked to climate change since Trump 1.0 gave way to four years of the Biden White House.
Sunita Narain, director-general of Centre for Science and Environment (CSE), told this reporter: “It (Trump win) is going to have devastating, disastrous consequences.” It is a sentiment shared by most climate experts.
The early indications are not hopeful. Immediately after winning the presidency, Trump said the US — a signatory to the Dubai COP28 agreement about transitioning away from fossil fuels — would instead ramp up oil production even beyond current record levels.
“We have more liquid gold than any country in the world … more than Saudi Arabia … more than Russia,” said the president-elect, who won with substantial support from the oil and gas industry.
However, US experts feel that Trump’s efforts on making a U-turn from the Inflation Reduction Act may evoke opposition within his own supporters.
That is because a major portion of the money spent so far got invested in several Republican-won districts. The Act, promulgated in 2022, is decidedly providing about $390 billion into electric vehicles, batteries and other clean energy technology.
Several experts with whom this correspondent spoke, observed that Trump coming back to power with a definite majority would impact climate finance in particular in particular, and climate action in general. India, being one of the vulnerable countries, is likely to suffer though the strong US-India strategic partnership may buffer the impact to a certain extent.
“Donald Trump has made it clear that his country should do more drilling, as he really does not believe that climate change is real,” said Narain. She reminded that outgoing president Joe Biden has played a key role in bringing the US back to the mainstream of global climate negotiations post Trump’s first presidency era.
“Biden has put the US on a path where they declare that they are responsible for the emission rise and planned to make reductions domestically. It has been the only time the US has finalised a domestic reduction target, which is about 50 per cent reduction by 2030. Biden also came up with a very good domestic legislation called IRA, Inflation Reduction Act, which by all accounts has helped to move investment towards green technologies and move investments towards manufacturing and making the transition towards a cleaner economy,” according to Narain.
She pointed out that Biden’s policies, and leadership, were important as they encouraged several countries to pursue more aggressive greenhouse gas reduction targets. The recent election reverse would have a huge impact on the rest of the developed world, Narain said.
The climate expert however expressed hope that the US election results would not impact the Baku COP29 outcome in a major manner. “The Biden government was never very good on international negotiations, whether it was loss and damage, or was climate finance in general. Hence, Trump’s election is not going to make a major difference”.
“My expectations are that whatever the leadership change in the United States, the world has to be resolute in standing up to the fact that climate change is real, it is impacting the poorest of the world, and that the financial deal is critical in Baku and beyond to make the transformation in our world,” added Narain.
“Trump’s victory is a profound blow to global climate justice and an alarming escalation of climate risk for the world’s most vulnerable communities including those in India; Sundarbans, Assam and Bihar likewise,” pointed out Harjeet Singh, climate activist and Global Engagement Director for the Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty Initiative.
“Trump’s push to ramp up fossil fuel production, disregard for international agreements, and refusal to provide climate finance will deepen the crisis, endangering lives and livelihoods—especially in regions least responsible for, yet most impacted by, climate change,” he further clarified.
“With COP29 talks starting in Baku next week and aiming to secure an ambitious new climate finance goal, this news makes the already challenging path to consensus even steeper and more uncertain,” explained Singh.
“As of now we do not have any substantial evidence that Trump will do something different — I mean favourable — to climate change compared to what he did earlier though there are some analysis indicating that he has mellowed down on climate change issue. But we fear for the worst,” said Sanjay Vashist, director of civil society umbrella platform Climate Action Network South Asia.
“I do not think the Baku talks will be derailed. But there will be some impacts. I expect the Green Climate Fund and Loss and Damage fund to be affected. The countries should rally, including the US still under Biden, and should work together on New Collective Quantifiable Goals (NCQG) on finance,” observed the expert.
At COP29, countries are set to negotiate a new NCQG. The COP is expected to generate heat on the quantity of the finance, though most developing and less developed countries demand that it should be in trillions. This includes India, which is pushing for a one trillion funding.
Experts feel that India’s climate funding will be affected and it has to carefully navigate the climate path in the immediate future, vis-à-vis the US change of guard.
Arunabha Ghosh, chief executive of the Council on Energy, Environment and Water (CEEW) observed that “the proposed trade barriers will need careful navigation so that Indian industries, especially for clean technologies, do not suffer”.
He added: “Currently, India exports 90 per cent of its solar modules to the US, and, over the next four years, India will need to be prepared and strategically nimble to deepen green trade, co-develop clean tech supply chains, and accelerate its energy transition.”
Ghosh reminded that the US election results do not change the fact that India and the US will continue to be key strategic partners.
“Trump’s actions on climate policy last time, and the decision to withdraw from the Paris Agreement give no confidence that he will give the right attention the climate emergency requires,” said Aarti Khosla, director of Climate Trends, pointing out that it is not good news for India with a large amount of vulnerable populations at stake .
She, however, reminded that the world is different from the last time he came to power. “Climate impacts have ravaged every part of the world. The COP in Baku is going to start under a very challenging political context, one in which the US will not have a mandate or political will. It may lead to further lack of progress on important elements including hiking cash for climate action.”
