COP30 enters crucial phase as Parties weigh competing and complementary proposals to accelerate transition away from fossil fuels

As the ongoing 30th Conference of the Parties (COP30) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) moves into its decisive second week, negotiations over how to turn last year’s historic COP28 commitment to “transition away from fossil fuels” into an actionable global process have become one of the most politically charged debates in Belém. 

With the world off track to meet the Paris goals, countries are now debating not whether to implement the transition, but how — and crucially, who gets the support needed to do so. As countries demand clarity, credibility, and fairness in how the world phases out coal, oil, and gas, three proposals — circulating both within and outside the formal UNFCCC process — have emerged as the backbone of a potential outcome on the Transition Away from Fossil Fuels (TAFF).

New proposals, sharpened country positions, and a fast-growing coalition behind a global roadmap signal that fossil fuel transition has moved to the centre of climate diplomacy. But deep tensions over finance, equity, and responsibility remain.

The three proposals now frame the emerging architecture of a global TAFF roadmap. At the same time, negotiations revealed wide gaps between ambition and feasibility, trust and delivery, and political momentum and legal mandates.

Three proposals, one Goal: Converting commitment into action

Negotiators are grappling with three complementary proposals that could form a TAFF package capable of delivering a credible outcome at COP30. All three construct different political and process pathways for advancing the fossil fuel transition.

1. The Belém Declaration — Political momentum outside UNFCCC

Led by Colombia, the Belém Declaration (outside formal negotiations) supports Brazil’s call for clear, actionable roadmaps and aims to project high ambition ahead of the First International Conference for the Phase-Out of Fossil Fuels in April 2026. It does not create a formal process but sends a strong signal of political intent — and is gaining traction as a rallying point for ambition.

2. AOSIS proposal — A formal CMA process to anchor ambition

The Alliance of Small Island States (AOSIS) is calling for a dedicated space under the Conference of the Parties serving as the Meeting of the Parties to the Paris Agreement (CMA) to:

· assess findings of the Nationally Determined Contributions Synthesis Report

· track collective progress

· create follow-up actions to enhance ambition in line with 1.5°C

Vulnerable nations insist that fossil fuel transition cannot rest solely on voluntary political statements — it must be embedded in the Paris Agreement’s institutional machinery.

3. The COP30 presidency’s high-level dialogue — A practical engine for roadmaps

Brazil’s proposal envisions a presidency-mandated high-level dialogue to:

· develop global pathways

· co-create country-tailored roadmaps

· identify enabling conditions, barriers, and cooperation mechanisms

· mobilise non-debt-creating finance, technology, and capacity-building

· support developing countries in a just, orderly, and equitable transition

This Dialogue will be mandated through the COP30 cover decision or mutirão decision, giving it presidential authority and implementation power.

At the COP30 Leaders’ Summit in Belém, Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, on November 6, called for a “fair, well-planned, and adequately financed transition” away from fossil fuels — warning that the world’s delay in acting on science risks catastrophic consequences for both people and the planet.

This three-tiered package would balance:

· ambition (political signal)

· legitimacy (formal process)

· implementation (presidency-led dialogue)

It is increasingly seen by negotiators as the strongest possible outcome.

Why it matters: From commitment to construction

Fossil fuels account for nearly 80 per cent of global greenhouse gas emissions. COP28 made history by acknowledging the need to transition away from them. COP30 must now define the ‘how’:

· how fast,

· how fairly,

· how cooperatively, and

· with what support

Growing momentum: 62 countries back TAFF roadmap process

A rapidly expanding coalition — 62 countries across multiple blocs — now supports advancing a structured fossil fuel transition roadmap. This includes:

· Brazil, Colombia, France, Germany, United Kingdom

· Kenya, Australia

· AOSIS (39 countries)

· Environmental Integrity Group

· Independent Association of Latin America and the Caribbean

· Marshall Islands

This broad alignment signals unprecedented appetite for clarity, guidance, and cooperation on fossil fuel transition — even amid sharp differences on process.

Negotiation room dynamics: Finance, Equity, and Trust drive debate

In closed-door consultations on Day 6, major negotiating groups delivered some of the most candid interventions of COP30 so far. Their statements highlight a negotiation grappling with ambition but constrained by longstanding trust deficits.

African Group (Ethiopia): No transition without resources

Africa stressed that implementation demands cannot rise without real financing flows. It:

· welcomed the Presidency’s structure

· insisted on strong emphasis on non-debt finance

· prioritised adaptation and the Just Transition Work Programme (JTWP)

· underscored Article 9.1 obligations

“Implementation will not happen without addressing our needs and realities,” Ethiopia said bluntly.

China: No reinterpretation of Paris, no shifting burdens

China’s intervention was firm:

· Paris Agreement differentiation must be preserved

· Developed countries must meet Article 9.1 finance commitments

· No new obligations on developing countries

· JTWP should enhance cooperation, not impose burdens

Beijing warned against “symmetrical responsibilities” or language that implies universal fossil fuel phaseout timelines.

AOSIS: 1.5°C is non-negotiable

For small island states:

· TAFF must be aligned with 1.5°C pathways

· The process must be formal, CMA-mandated

· The roadmap must specify what support island economies will receive

“For us, ambition is survival, not symbolism,” the group said.

Least Developed Countries (LDCs): Finance must be predictable and grant-based

The LDC Group highlighted:

· Extreme vulnerability

· Limited fiscal space

· Need for non-debt finance and multilateral development bank reform

· Clarity on how support will flow

“For LDCs, the transition cannot be theoretical. It must be resourced.”

Arab Group: no hidden conditionalities

The Arab Group stressed:

· No language implying an imposed fossil fuel phaseout

· National sovereignty in determining energy pathways

· Balanced treatment of mitigation, adaptation, and support

“The Paris balance must not be disrupted.”

India (LMDC): Equity is the bedrock of any transition

India argued:

· No dilution of Common But Differentiated Responsibilities

· No universal obligations on fossil phaseouts

· JTWP should enable cooperation, not new reporting burdens

· Developed countries must deliver finance

“Developing countries cannot carry the weight of global ambition alone.”  

By November 15, countries were ready to talk about roadmaps, sequencing, and enabling conditions — but only if finance, equity, and trust are placed at the core. As one negotiator said, leaving the room: “The direction of travel is clear. What we’re negotiating now is the map — and who gets the fuel to move forward.”