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As the world prepares for the 30th Conference of Parties (COP30) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change in Belém — the first climate summit to be hosted deep in the Amazon and a symbolic 10-year mark since the Paris Agreement, Brazil, the world’s fifth-largest emitter, celebrates its sharpest fall in greenhouse gas emissions in 16 years — a 17 per cent drop in 2024 — largely due to reduced deforestation in the Amazon and Cerrado. But even as the country pitches a Tropical Forest Forever Fund, an idea President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva first presented at COP28 in Dubai, to finance forest protection, environmental groups warn that its simultaneous oil expansion plans risk undermining those very gains.
For India, the Amazon summit is as much about climate geopolitics as it is about climate justice. Senior environment and climate ministry officials say New Delhi supports Brazil’s move to mobilise long-term, predictable financing for forest-rich developing nations — but with clear conditions. India is expected to push for a model that balances conservation goals with equity, national sovereignty, and predictable finance for the developing world.
“Indicators and funding mechanisms must not penalise developing countries,” a senior official told reporters ahead of COP on November 3. “They should reflect national realities, capacity, and access to technology.”
Brazil’s proposed Tropical Forest Forever Fund aims to create a permanent, multilateral facility to reward countries for preserving tropical forests — moving beyond short-term pledges and offset-based carbon payments. The proposal aligns with President Lula’s plan to make COP30 a ‘COP of implementation’, focusing on concrete delivery of climate goals.
According to data from the Observatório do Clima’s SEEG emissions platform, deforestation control measures cut Brazil’s land-use change emissions by 32.5 per cent in 2024, helping lower overall climate pollution to 2.145 billion tonnes of CO2 equivalent. Net emissions fell even more steeply — 22 per cent — driven by forest regeneration and enforcement in protected areas.
However, civil society groups caution that this progress masks deep contradictions. While forest loss fell, fires doubled non-inventoried emissions from land-use change, and Brazil’s crude oil exports hit a record 85 million tonnes — emissions that are not counted in national inventories but are still released when the oil is burned abroad.
“We find ourselves with a government that gives with one hand and takes with the other,” said Claudio Angelo, head of international policy at Observatório do Clima. “Climate policy isn’t a buffet where you can pick and choose.”
India’s negotiators are entering COP30 with a clear focus on adaptation, technology, and finance delivery, rather than new emission-cutting obligations. The country is particularly vocal about the rationalisation of adaptation indicators being developed under the UAE-led Global Goal on Adaptation (GGA).
“Indicators should not harm developing countries,” the official said. “They must be nationally determined and supported by finance and capacity-building.” India is pushing for adaptation metrics that recognise data sovereignty, flexibility, and national circumstances, rather than uniform global benchmarks.
The upcoming New Collective Quantified Goal (NCQG) on climate finance — meant to replace the unfulfilled $100-billion pledge — will also test whether developed countries move from commitments to delivery. India’s line: finance must be transparent, non-debt-creating, and predictable.
Brazil’s idea of a Global Ethical Stocktake, blending scientific assessment with moral and lifestyle dimensions, finds resonance with India’s Mission LiFE (Lifestyle for Environment) campaign. Both aim to reposition climate action as a collective behavioural shift, not just a technological or policy exercise.
“This is where science meets ethics and spirituality meets action,” another official said, hinting that India may collaborate with Brazil in anchoring this dialogue.
COP30, marking 10 years since the Paris Agreement, will be a reckoning for both emerging economies. India has scaled its renewable energy capacity from 81 gigawatt (GW) in 2014 to 236 GW today, even as finance flows lag. Brazil, despite its recent emissions dip, remains off track to meet its 2025 climate target — projected to exceed its Nationally Determined Contribution ceiling by 9 per cent, according to SEEG data.
For India, the takeaway is clear: global implementation must begin with fairness and access. “Implementation cannot mean shifting burdens,” officials said. “It must mean enabling action.”
Tropical Forest Forever Fund: Brazil’s flagship proposal for permanent forest finance.
Adaptation Indicators: Negotiations on rationalisation and flexibility under the UAE-led programme.
New Climate Finance Goal: Successor to the $100-billion promise, with India seeking transparent, predictable mechanisms.
Technology Implementation Programme: Push for capacity and institutional mechanisms for low-carbon tech.
Global Ethical Stocktake: Brazil’s proposal linking ethics, science, and sustainable lifestyles — aligned with India’s Mission LiFE.