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The depression over the east central Bay of Bengal set to turn into a severe cyclonic storm christened ‘Dana’ is likely to make landfall close to Baleshwar, more specifically Dhamra port. It will then slightly curve towards Odisha, a senior India Meteorological Department (IMD) official told this reporter on October 22, 2024.
Dana will partially spare West Bengal. However, its coastal districts of Purba Medinipur and South 24 Parganas — which are to the right of the cyclonic movement — are likely to face the brunt of the cyclone.
“This is the present position, but the track often gets shifted for a range of reasons as we have seen for many cyclones earlier. If the landfall point and track comes closer to West Bengal, then the impact will be definitely higher,” added the expert.
“West Bengal, particularly the southern part of the state, will be affected,” Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, director general of IMD, told this reporter without delving in the details.
“Our present understanding is coastal districts in state will be mostly affected though major part of south Bengal is expected to receive strong wind and substantial rain, However, the chief secretary has already taken stock of the situation, and we are making preparations to counter the cyclone’s impact,” pointed out a senior disaster management department official of West Bengal.
According to IMD, the expected speed at landfall will be 100-110 km per hour gusting to 120 kmph. The landfall is expected to occur within “night of October 24 to morning of October 25”. Sources say an early morning landfall seems more likely.
Kolkata, set to be about 250 km away from the expected landfall zone, is expected to be affected with wind speeds of 50 to 60 kmph during the night of October 24 and the morning of October 25. There will also be heavy to very heavy rainfall in the range of 7 to 20 cm.
“The depression over east central Bay of Bengal moved west-northwestwards with a speed of 7 kmph during past 6 hours, intensified into a deep depression and lay centred at 1730 hrs IST of today, the 22nd October, over the same region … about 690 km southeast of Paradip (Odisha), 740 km south-southeast of Sagar Island (West Bengal) and 710 km south-southeast of Khepupara (Bangladesh),” read the latest IMD national communique issued at 8.30 pm on October 22.
“It is very likely to move west-northwestwards and intensify into a cyclonic storm by 23rd October, 2024 over east central Bay of Bengal. Thereafter, continuing to move northwestwards, it is very likely to intensify into a severe cyclonic storm over northwest Bay of Bengal by morning of 24th and cross north Odisha and West Bengal coasts between Puri and Sagar Island during night of 24th to morning of 25th October, 2024 as a severe Cyclonic Storm with a wind speed of 100-110 kmph gusting 120 kmph,” further read the bulletin issued by scientist Ananda Kumar Das.
The track forecast however ratifies what the IMD official pointed out: A landfall near Dhamra. The forecast track shows that at about 5.30 am on October 25, the cyclone will be at 20.9 latitude and 86.8 longitude. That is a point close to Dhamra and Baleshwar, which are about 70 km away from each other on a crow fly measurement.
“As the impact of the cyclone has generally been pronounced at the right side of the track, the West Bengal coastal districts stand vulnerable to the cyclonic system which is expected to have a radius of 300 km,” pointed out another senior IMD scientist.
“Light to moderate rainfall at most places with heavy rainfall at isolated places is very likely on October 23 and heavy to very heavy rainfall at a few places with extremely heavy rainfall at isolated places over South & North 24 Parganas, Purba & Paschim Medinipur, Jhargram, Howrah, Hooghly, Kolkata and Bankura districts of Gangetic West Bengal on 24th & 25th October,” read the IMD bulletin.
The bulletin further pointed out that “along & off Odisha-west Bengal coasts; squally wind speed reaching 40-50 gusting to 60 kmph is very likely to commence from 23rd Oct evening”. It will then gradually increase to “60-70 kmph gusting to 80 kmph from 24th morning and reaching 100-110 kmph gusting to 120 kmph from 24th night till 25th Oct morning and decrease gradually thereafter”.
Another bulletin, issued by IMD Alipore, points out that during 24th evening to 25th morning, the gale wind speed may reach 100 to 110 kmph gusting to 120 kmph over Purba Medinipur; 80 to 90 kmph gusting to 110 kmph over Sagar and the rest of the Sundarbans in South 24 parganas; 70 to 80 kmph gusting to 90 kmph over Paschim Medinipur and other areas of South 24 parganas; and 50 to 60 kmph gusting to 70 kmph over Kolkata, North 24 Parganas, Howrah, Hoogly and Bankura districts.
The sea condition in the zone, “is likely to be rough to very rough from 23rd evening and would become high to very high from 24th October morning to 25th Oct forenoon and improve gradually thereafter”. Fisherfolk have been asked not to venture out to sea during the period.