The southwest monsoon is now in its withdrawal phase, but this year it has failed to provide farmers with rainfall when they needed it most. Farmers in several agriculture-dependent states, particularly those with limited irrigation facilities, are facing unexpectedly long dry spells.
Crop-monitoring data from the Department of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare indicate signs of rainfall and crop stress in parts of several states, including Rajasthan, Gujarat, Maharashtra, Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu.
The situation is highlighted in a briefing prepared by the Mahalanobis National Crop Forecast Centre (NCFC) for the Crop Weather Watch meeting held on September 21, 2026. The assessment uses rainfall data, dry-spell information, soil moisture, vegetation indices and satellite radar observations. The NCFC analysis draws on district-level and 25-km grid-based rainfall data from the India Meteorological Department (IMD).
According to the NCFC briefing, rainfall remained below normal in several parts of the country between June 1 and September 19, 2026.
The document recorded dry spells lasting two to three weeks between July 1 and September 19 in parts of Rajasthan, Gujarat, Maharashtra, Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu, Punjab and Haryana. A dry day was identified as a day when rainfall was less than 2.5 millimetres in a 25-km grid.
Even during the first 19 days of September, dry spells lasting around two weeks were recorded in Rajasthan, Maharashtra, Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh and Kerala.
This means that several agricultural regions continued to face a prolonged lack of rainfall even during the final phase of the monsoon.
The rainfall deficit is also reflected in soil moisture conditions.
The NCFC used Root Zone Soil Moisture (RZSM) anomaly data from the Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) satellite. Conditions on September 17, 2026, were compared with the 10-year average for 2016–2025.
The data show that soil moisture in parts of Chhattisgarh, Odisha, Jharkhand, Uttar Pradesh, eastern Madhya Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Jammu and Kashmir, Ladakh and Nagaland was at or above the average.
In contrast, soil moisture was below the 10-year average in parts of Karnataka, Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Tamil Nadu, Rajasthan, Gujarat, western Madhya Pradesh and northern Bihar.
Reservoir conditions also point to pressure on water availability in some regions. Based on the Central Water Commission's weekly report, storage levels in 178 major reservoirs were assessed as of September 17. The NCFC analysis found deficient storage in several reservoirs across western and southern India.
To assess crop and vegetation conditions, the NCFC used Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and Land Surface Water Index (LSWI) data derived from VIIRS satellite observations at a resolution of 500 metres.
Between August 29 and September 13, 2026, NDVI values in parts of Rajasthan, Gujarat, Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu were below both the corresponding period last year and the 2021–25 average.
This indicates that vegetation in these areas was less dense and less active. NDVI derived from satellite observations provides an indication of the amount of green and actively growing vegetation in an area. Generally, a higher NDVI value indicates denser and more active vegetation.
LSWI also showed weaker conditions in parts of Rajasthan, Gujarat, Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu compared with both last year and the five-year average. Parts of Maharashtra and Telangana were also weaker than the five-year average.
District- and taluka-level maps show areas in Jaisalmer, Bikaner and Barmer districts of Rajasthan and Kutch in Gujarat with NDVI declines of more than 30 per cent.
However, the NCFC has cautioned that satellite data need to be interpreted carefully. In Madhya Pradesh, some NDVI anomalies were primarily attributed to problems in satellite observations caused by cloud cover. Similarly, the decline in NDVI in Balasore and Bhadrak in Odisha was linked to flooding rather than drought.
Sentinel-1 Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) backscatter data also showed declines in some areas compared with last year.
When August 10–31, 2026, was compared with the same period in 2025, lower backscatter values were observed in Gujarat, Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh, Maharashtra and Rajasthan.
According to the NCFC, a decline in backscatter can indicate drier surface conditions, delayed sowing or reduced crop growth. Therefore, it should not be treated on its own as conclusive evidence of drought.
An analysis of seasonal NDVI progression also showed that crop growth in Rajasthan was slower this year than last year. Gujarat and Andhra Pradesh recorded delays in NDVI progression compared with the previous two years.
Satellite radar was also used to compare the extent and timing of paddy transplantation.
In Madhya Pradesh, the paddy area visible in Sheopur, Datia, Bhind and Rewa was lower than last year.
In Uttar Pradesh, the document indicates changes in crop patterns in Jhansi, Jalaun and Hamirpur, possibly including a shift from paddy to other crops.
In West Bengal, the overall coverage and pattern of paddy transplantation remained broadly similar to last year until the second half of August. However, delays in transplantation were recorded in Bankura, Purba Bardhaman, Birbhum and Murshidabad.
Jharkhand has also fallen behind last year's paddy transplantation levels. The area under paddy in northern districts such as Giridih, Deoghar, Palamu, Chatra and Garhwa was lower than last year, although the situation was reported to be better than in 2023.
Bihar also experienced delays in paddy transplantation. In southern districts such as Gaya, Aurangabad, Jamui and Nawada, the paddy area was slightly lower than last year, while conditions in northern Bihar were similar to or better than last year.
NCFC data show that the impact of the weak monsoon has not been uniform across India.
Parts of western India—including Rajasthan, Gujarat and Maharashtra—and parts of southern or peninsular India, including Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh, Telangana and Tamil Nadu, show weakness across several indicators.
In contrast, soil moisture remains relatively better in many parts of eastern and northern India, and paddy transplantation in some states is close to or better than last year's levels.
The difference is also linked to irrigation availability. States such as Rajasthan and Gujarat, as well as several interior districts of southern India, have large areas of agriculture that are heavily dependent on the monsoon, with irrigated acreage in many such areas below 25 per cent.
Better-irrigated regions in eastern, northern and central India have therefore been able to withstand the weak monsoon more effectively.
The overall assessment suggests that the withdrawal of the monsoon is coming at the end of a season marked not simply by low rainfall, but by prolonged gaps between rainfall events. These extended dry spells have affected soil moisture, vegetation, crop growth and, in several areas, the timing and choice of crops.
