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The El Niño conditions in the Equatorial Pacific Ocean could develop rapidly with the possible quick collapse of the current La Niña conditions. The 2026 El Niño during the northern hemisphere summer season could be a strong event, according to experts.
The El Niño phase of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon in the Equatorial Pacific Ocean brings much warmer than normal temperatures to many places around the world, increasing annual and monthly global average temperatures and causes enhancement or suppression of rainfall in different regions.
“New ECMWF guidance aggressively predicts the development of a planet-warming El Niño this year, with changes in Pacific wind patterns signaling that a transition is underway,” wrote Ben Noll, meteorologist for Washington Post on social media platform X.
By most estimates the El Niño could develop between May and July in 2026 and it could be moderate to strong in intensity.
“The brand new ECMWF Seasonal calls for La Nina to quickly collapse this Spring, with a moderate to strong El Nino developing by the Summer,” wrote Dylan Federico, meteorologist with WSVN 7 News in South Florida, United States, on X.
On the other hand, the current La Niña conditions which have been prevalent for the past few months could translate to neutral ENSO conditions pretty quickly.
“I’ve closely studied/followed ENSO for the better part of the last 10-15 yrs. I can confidently say that this is the biggest mid-winter collapse of La Nina that I’ve ever seen in real-time,” wrote Eric Webb, meteorologist and an ENSO expert on X. “It’s incredible to see westerly wind bursts out to the International Dateline this early in winter”, he added.
Other experts predict that the El Niño in 2026, even if strong, would not have much of an effect on planetary warming. “The potentially developing El Niño event is evolving similarly to 1997, but many things could end or blunt that evolution before it would reach that outcome,” wrote Paul Roundy, atmospheric scientist at University of Albany, on X.
“The event is NOT expected to produce a huge global temperature spike like 2023-2024, whether or not it becomes strong. The reason is that the high latitude SST pattern does not support a big warm signal this year,” he added.
Even if there is no further major spike in global average temperatures, El Niño could also bring impacts of decreased rainfall for countries such as India, especially during the southwest monsoon season, when most of the country receives rainfall. Many of the past El Niño events have been associated with failed southwest monsoon rainfall and associated droughts.
The El Niño comes in the wake of unprecedented warming in the last three years. The period 2023-2025 has broken many monthly and annual global average temperature records. A part of this warming was a result of the 2023-2024 El Niño event apart from decreased aerosols from shipping fuel and volcanic eruptions. The three-year period could also end up as the first to cross the 1.5 C threshold above preindustrial average (1850-1900).
The years 2026 and 2027 could also have similar global average temperature anomalies. “I've put together my predictions for 2026 and 2027 temperatures over at The Climate Brink. I expect 2026 will likely end up similar to 2023 and 2025 at ~1.4C above preindustrial, while 2027 will likely be considerably warmer (conditional on El Nino),” wrote Zeke Hausfather, climate scientist and writer at Berkeley Earth on X.