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Emperor penguin (Aptenodytes forsteri) and Antarctic fur seal (Arctocephalus gazella) have been uplisted to Endangered category, according to the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List of Threatened Species.
The IUCN has cited climate change in Antarctica as the primary driver, resulting in changes to sea ice that are projected to halve emperor penguin populations by the 2080s. “While reduced food availability has already driven a 50 per cent reduction in the Antarctic fur seal population since 2000, the southern elephant seal is also now at risk of extinction due to disease,” it said in a statement.
Emperor penguins were previously listed as Near Threatened (NT), and scientists had called for stronger protection by elevating their status. In 2022, they were listed as Threatened under the United States’ Endangered Species Act of 1973.
Satellite imagery indicates a loss of around 10 per cent of the population between 2009 and 2018 alone, equating to more than 20,000 adult penguins, the IUCN said.
“The primary driver is the early break-up and loss of sea ice, which has reached record lows since 2016. Emperor penguins require fast ice — sea ice that is ‘fastened’ to the coastline, ocean floor or grounded icebergs — as habitat for their chicks and during their moulting season, when they are not waterproof. If the ice breaks up too early, the result can be deadly,” it added.
The statement further said that while it is difficult to translate observed events — such as the collapse of a breeding colony into the sea before chicks can swim — into population changes, modelling across a range of future climate scenarios shows that without rapid reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, emperor penguin populations are likely to decline sharply this century.
“Penguins are already among the most threatened birds on Earth. The emperor penguin’s move to Endangered is a stark warning. Climate change is accelerating the extinction crisis before our eyes. Governments must act now to urgently decarbonise our economies,” said Martin Harper, chief executive of BirdLife International, which coordinated the emperor penguin assessment for the IUCN Red List.
After careful consideration of different threats, human-induced climate change emerged as the most significant risk, said Philip Trathan, a member of the IUCN SSC Penguin Specialist Group who worked on the assessment.
“Early sea-ice break-up in spring is already affecting colonies around the Antarctic, and further changes will continue to disrupt their breeding, feeding and moulting habitat. Emperor penguins are a sentinel species that tell us about our changing world and how well we are controlling greenhouse gas emissions,” he added.
The Antarctic fur seal, previously listed as Least Concern (LC) on the list, has now been moved to Endangered, with its dependence on the Antarctic marine ecosystem making it vulnerable to long-term climate change.
The IUCN said its population has fallen by more than 50 per cent — from an estimated 2,187,000 mature individuals in 1999 to 944,000 in 2025.
“The ongoing decline is due to climate change, as rising ocean temperatures and shrinking sea ice are pushing krill to greater depths in search of colder water, reducing food availability for seals. Krill shortages at South Georgia have dramatically reduced the survival of pups in their first year, leading to an ageing breeding population,” it said.
Other pressures, including predation by killer whales and leopard seals, as well as competition with recovering baleen whale populations for krill, are also likely contributing to the decline.
Meanwhile, the IUCN has moved the southern elephant seal (Mirounga leonina) from Least Concern to Vulnerable on the Red List. The change follows sharp declines linked to Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI), commonly known as bird flu.
Since 2020, the H5N1 clade 2.3.4.4b has affected more than 485 bird species and 48 mammal species worldwide.
The IUCN said the disease has impacted four of the five major subpopulations of southern elephant seals, killing more than 90 per cent of newborn pups in some colonies and severely affecting adult females, which spend more time on beaches than males.
“There is growing concern that disease-related mortalities of marine mammals will increase with global warming – particularly in polar regions, where animals have not had much previous exposure to pathogens. Animals that live close together in colonies, such as southern elephant seals, are particularly hard-hit by diseases,” it said.
These listings are not only sobering for two iconic animals; they reflect what is happening to penguins and seals globally, said Kathleen Flower, vice-president of biodiversity science at Conservation International.
“Their decline underscores how quickly ecosystems are being degraded and how the compounding impacts of warming accelerate food scarcity, emerging disease, and habitat loss. The result is rapidly increasing extinction risk for many species. The Red List is an essential tool, but it must be adequately resourced and strengthened with climate‑informed science to identify risks and help reduce climate‑driven extinctions,” she stated.