Fossil giant US announces new climate target, as Trump waits in the wings

“The American way of life is not up for negotiations. Period.” — then President of the United States (US) George H W Bush had stated infamously, in the early 1990s, as global efforts to coordinate on climate policy were beginning to precipitate. Thirty years later, as the US announces its third climate pledge to the Paris Agreement — to cut emissions 61-66 per cent below 2005 levels by 2035 — Bush’s sentiment is reinforced once again. This time, while a resurgent Donald Trump waits in the wings to tear it all down next year.

What’s in the new target?

The US’ latest Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) released last week, sets an economy-wide target aligning with a “straight line to net zero emissions by 2050”, per their official submission. This is an update to the US’ previous NDC announced in 2021, of a 50-52 per cent reduction.

The new emission reduction target of 61-66 per cent as per the NDC implies that the US’ absolute emissions in 2035 would be between 2.2 and 2.6 gigatonnes CO2 equivalent, taking 2005 as the reference year when the US emitted 6.6 GtCO2e.

It also “anticipates at least a 35 per cent reduction in methane emissions” from 2005 levels by 2035, without setting an official target for reducing methane.

The new NDC focuses on multiple paths to achieve the 2035 goal, such as “additional investments and technology advancements made possible by action from the private sector and state, local, territorial, and Tribal governments, and by increased federal engagement later in this decade”. The focus on sub-national actors, and the latter half of the statement alluding to the federal government being involved ‘later in this decade’ are plausibly instances of the current Joe Biden administration hedging its bets, acknowledging that the incoming Trump Presidency will regress rather than advance US climate action.

Although the NDC outlines sectoral pathways for electricity, transportation, buildings, industry, and the agriculture, forestry, and land sectors, maximum progress is expected in the power sector, for which Biden had domestically set a goal of 100 per cent carbon pollution-free electricity on a net annual basis by 2030, early in his tenure. The NDC mentions that current policies “put the power sector on track to meet nearly 80 per cent of electricity demand with clean electricity by 2035”.

This rides on the optimism of policies like the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), which has been reported to have had a significant impact on the power sector, with provisions such as tax credits for clean electricity production driving private sector investments in clean energy.

With Trump coming in to assume power, some of the existing provisions such as consumer tax credits for electric vehicle (EV) purchases may well be repealed and money allocated for building EV charging stations is planned to be redirected towards national defense priorities. While Trump has repeatedly vowed to dismantle the IRA, some experts suggest that certain aspects of the law could hold strategic value for his administration. Initially framed by the Biden administration as a climate-focused initiative, the IRA is, at its core, designed to enhance US economic security. Its provisions aimed at boosting domestic manufacturing and reducing reliance on foreign supply chains align closely with Trump’s “America First” agenda. While the law’s environmental elements may be scaled back, other provisions could be repurposed under the new administration. Moreover, many solar and wind energy projects may not be as affected due to many states benefitting from the IRA.

How much can an NDC help?

Aside from reaffirming the outcomes of the first Global Stocktake decision at COP28—specifically, the commitment to “accelerate the global phasedown of unabated coal power and the transition away from fossil fuels in energy systems in a just, orderly, and equitable manner”—the submitted NDC lacks discussion on any concrete measures to cut down on fossil fuel production and use.

Our report by the Centre for Science and Environment (CSE) shows via a detailed framework accounting for the historical responsibility and capacity of countries to transition away from fossil fuels, that the US should lead the way in phasing out fossil fuels.

The reality is quite the opposite. Fossil fuels still account for 83 per cent of the primary energy consumed in the US today, with 60 per cent of its electricity still generated by burning fossil fuels. As a producer, the US’ crude oil production has surged by 129 per cent between 2000 and 2023 and gas production has risen by 98 per cent. Today, the US is both the largest producer of crude oil and the largest exporter of liquefied natural gas (LNG) — a status that the current Biden administration has facilitated, despite its climate-friendly intent. In fact, the administration approved the ConocoPhillips Willow project in March 2023, the single largest oil project on federal lands and it is projected to produce 180,000 barrels of oil till the late 2020s.

The US, Russia and Saudi Arabia were the top three global producers with their annual crude oil and condensate production being 12.9 million barrels per day, 10.2 million barrels per day and 9.7 million barrels per day, as per the USA Energy Information Administration.

The US Department of Energy recently released an updated study on the country’s LNG exports, suggesting scrutiny and caution over large LNG projects, as US consumers ultimately bear the increased costs of exports. On the environmental front, a single LNG project exporting 4 billion cubic feet per day would emit more GHG emissions than 141 of the world’s countries did in 2023, according to the report.

A report by Oil Change International shows that the US is projected to have the highest emissions from planned oil and gas extractions between 2023 and 2050.

Meanwhile, the US also continues to lead global fossil fuel investments. Of the $5.1 trillion invested by private investors in fossil fuels, the US accounts for 60 per cent of the total, according to a report by Investing in Climate Chaos. The biggest beneficiaries of US institutional investments are companies such as ExxonMobil, Chevron, and ConocoPhillips. Vanguard, a US asset management company, is the single largest fossil fuel investor for two consecutive years, managing assets in coal, oil, and gas companies worth $444 billion.

All of this when, the US has also dumped 426 billion tonnes of CO2 into the atmosphere since 1870, accounting for a quarter of cumulative historical emissions. It is still the world’s second-largest emitter, with per capita emissions in 2023 at 14.3 tonnes — eight times higher than India’s and a staggering 98 times greater than Ethiopia’s.

With the Trump presidency set to take the reins next year, “Drill, baby, drill” may well become the subtext of US energy policy as the new administration clarifies its intentions ‘to expedite permits for drilling and for fracking all over this country’.

This reality should throw cold water on the optimism sparked by the NDC announcement from the US. Its callousness ensures that the climate crisis worsens, simply because the country has so far refused to compromise on the way it eats into the global carbon budget. Preserving the profits of its multinational corporations — especially in the fossil fuel sector and fueling its rampant consumption that characterise “the American way of life” remain a higher priority than preventing climate devastation worldwide.