How can US make its climate commitments fair? With $446 billion funding and rapid fossil fuel phase-out, suggests civil society report

The United States should allocate $446 billion annually in grant-based climate finance to the Global South as part of its climate commitments, according to a civil society document.

Of this $446 billion, the US needs to earmark $106 billion for mitigation funding and $340 billion for adaptation, as well as for loss and damage, by 2030, according to the United States of America Fair Shares Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) report.

The report also called for a phase-out of oil and gas in the US as part of its NDC, which is due in February 2025. Signatories to the Paris Agreement release their NDCs every five years, outlining their updated commitments to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Wealthy nations like the US are expected to provide financial and technological support to developing countries to aid their transitions from fossil fuels.

Fair Share NDCs are based on equity, applying the principle that a country’s responsibility for climate action is determined by its historical emissions and its capacity to act.

For instance, North America, with only 4 per cent of the global population, is responsible for nearly 25 per cent of global emissions since 1850, in stark contrast to South Asia, which, with 25 per cent of the global population, has contributed just 4 per cent of historical emissions.

The US is not only the largest historical emitter, but also a wealthy nation and the world’s largest producer of oil and gas. According to the report, the country produces about 50 per cent more oil than the second and third largest producers, Russia and Saudi Arabia.

Moreover, the liquified natural gas (LNG) industry is projected to expand by 200 per cent by 2030 — more than the expansion in all other countries combined. Although LNG is promoted as “cleaner than coal,” it releases methane, a greenhouse gas 82 times more potent than carbon dioxide.

In light of these facts, the report calculated that the US’s fair share would require emissions reductions equivalent to 203 per cent below 2005 levels — approximately 14 billion metric tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalents — if global temperatures are to be kept below 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels.

The US should reduce its domestic emissions by 80 per cent, or 6 billion metric tonnes, from 2005 levels by 2035, the report further recommended. This leaves 8 billion metric tonnes of emissions that must still be reduced, which can be achieved by providing financial and technological assistance to developing nations to enable deeper emissions cuts.

The Fair Share NDC report outlined specific strategies for reducing domestic emissions, including doubling energy efficiency, achieving 100 per cent clean and renewable energy in the electricity sector by 2030, protecting and restoring US carbon sinks, electrification, and building community infrastructure to support low-carbon lifestyles. It also urged the US to implement a fast, comprehensive, fair, feminist and funded phase-out of fossil fuel extraction.

Oil and gas production in the US should end by 2031 to give the world a 66 per cent chance of limiting global warming to 1.5°C, with fossil fuel subsidies phased out by 2025 to accelerate the transition, the document explained.

The current US NDC is insufficient. In its 2024 submission to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), the United States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) acknowledged that domestic efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions since 1990 have fallen significantly short of what is needed to limit global warming to 1.5°C—having achieved only a 1 per cent reduction since 1990.

Furthermore, the Global Stocktake, which reviewed global climate actions last year at the 28th Conference of Parties (COP28) to the UNFCCC in Dubai, United Arab Emirates in 2023, also found that current NDCs and the rate of implementation are inadequate to meet the 1.5°C target.

Climate Action Tracker, an independent scientific project that monitors government climate actions, rated US climate targets, actions, and finance as “insufficient.” It also noted that the US target of reducing emissions by 50–52 per cent below 2005 levels by 2030 is “insufficient” when compared to its fair-share emissions allocation.