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The daytime and nighttime temperatures are ranging much higher-than-normal in many regions across India, making it feel like a vanishing spring season, an early onset of the summer season and even heat waves are on the offing.
The higher-than-normal temperature rise is happening despite an ongoing La Nina phenomenon in the equatorial Pacific Ocean which generally causes colder winter and spring seasons in India as it does across many other regions.
The phenomenon is also occurring on the heels of the warmest January month on record in 2025 across the world with a temperature anomaly of 1.75℃ above the pre industrial (1850-1900) average for the month.
Between February 9 and February 10 there was a sudden rise in day time temperatures by 2℃ in northwest and central India, according to a press release by the India Meteorological Department (IMD).
Current day time temperatures are above normal by 3-4℃ in many parts of northwest and central India and by 2℃ in the northern parts of peninsular and eastern India, according to IMD. Maximum temperatures over southern India are already in the range of 30-35℃, with the highest of 36.6℃ recorded in Kalaburagi in north interior Karnataka.
Additionally, night time temperatures in the same period increased by 2-4℃ over most regions of Maharashtra and some regions of Gujarat, west Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan, southwest Madhya Pradesh, west Telangana, Andhra Pradesh and Yanam.
This heralds a sudden shift to spring time climate over these regions of the country. The immediate reason for this rise in day time and night time temperatures is a warm air mass sitting over Eurasia and China, according to Raghu Murtugudde, professor of climate studies at the Indian Institute of Technology, Bombay and emeritus professor at the University of Maryland.
“The air mass is partially blowing in but the disorganised and weak winds in general are not able to provide any relief,” Murtugudde told Down To Earth (DTE). The day time, night time and mean temperatures have been higher-than-normal all through the winter month of January as well.
“The average maximum (day time), average minimum (night time) and mean temperature for the country as a whole during January 2025 were 25.53ºC, 12.51ºC and 19.02ºC respectively, against the normal of 24.61ºC, 11.46ºC and 18.04ºC based on data of 1991-2020,” as per IMD.
“Thus, the average maximum, average minimum and mean temperature were above normal with departure from normal of 0.92ºC, 1.04ºC and 0.98ºC respectively for the country as a whole,” IMD added.
The mean temperature anomaly over India for January was the second highest since 1901 after 1921 and the average minimum temperature was fifth highest since 1901, according to the monthly climate summary for January by IMD. Specifically, over east and north east India the average minimum temperature was second highest since 1901.
The monthly anomalies for minimum and mean temperatures in January 2024 were 0.97ºC and 0.51ºC, respectively, while the anomaly for maximum temperature was near normal, according to data from the IMD.
During January 2024, an El Nino phenomenon was present in the equatorial Pacific Ocean when generally warmer-than-normal temperatures are observed over India. In January 2025 the spike in temperatures has been observed while a La Nina phenomenon is underway when generally cooler- than-normal temperatures prevail over India.
This shows that the impact of global warming from the emissions of the greenhouse gases, mainly from the burning of fossil fuels, has overshadowed the influence of natural cycles of temperature variations such as the two phases (El Nino and La Nina) of the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon.
The trend of higher-than-average monthly and daily minimum temperatures has been around for the past year or so. In 2024, 11 of the 12 months witnessed higher than normal night time temperatures.
Until around June 2024, the El Nino phenomenon was prevalent and the La Nina started off only in December, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) of the United States.
The average minimum and mean temperature anomalies in March 2024 were not as high as in January and February 2024, showing decreasing gap between the average temperatures in these months.
According to a research paper published in October 2023 in the journal npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, there was a positive trend of increasing temperatures by 0.1ºC-0.3ºC per decade in north west, north east and north central India for the period of March to May from 1980-2020.
From January 2024 to January 2025, the difference in temperature anomaly for minimum temperature was 0.07ºC while the difference in temperature anomaly for mean temperature for the month was a staggering 0.47ºC.
Some experts say that the current rising temperature trend doesn’t have anything to do with the La Nina and that it may not even be prudent to call the ongoing phenomenon in the equatorial Pacific Ocean a La Nina, when cooler-than-normal temperatures prevail all over the region.
“We are a bit careless in calling the pattern a La Nina especially since it’s warm in parts of the eastern equatorial Pacific. The Arabian Sea is cool in the west and warm in the east but the Bay of Bengal is very warm all over. So, this has nothing to do with La Nina,” Murtugudde told DTE.