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Glaciers around the world are melting faster and more extensively than previously feared, according to a study published in the journal Science. The findings, released just as global leaders gather in Tajikistan for the first United Nations conference on glaciers, reveal that keeping global warming below 1.5°C could preserve more than twice as much glacier ice as if current climate policies continue on track, pushing warming to 2.7°C.
The study, conducted by a team of 21 scientists from ten countries, used eight glacier models to simulate the long-term fate of more than 200,000 glaciers across the globe. Even if today’s temperatures remain steady, glaciers are still committed to losing around 39 per cent of their 2020 ice mass over centuries. However, the research demonstrates how stark the difference becomes as warming thresholds rise.
Under current climate pledges, the world is set to warm by 2.7°C above pre-industrial levels — this would leave only 24 per cent of global glacier ice intact in the long term. By contrast, staying close to 1.5°C, the goal of the Paris Agreement, would preserve around 54 per cent of that ice.
But the global average masks deeper regional crises. Some of the world’s most socially and environmentally critical glacier regions — including the European Alps, the Western Rockies of North America and Iceland — are projected to lose nearly 90 per cent of their ice at 2°C warming. Scandinavia, shockingly, could lose all its glacier ice entirely.
Even the Hindu Kush Himalaya, home to glaciers that feed the major rivers serving over two billion people, stands to retain only 25 per cent of its 2020 glacier mass if warming reaches 2°C. That figure rises to 40-45 per cent if warming is limited to 1.5°C — underscoring the direct threat climate change poses to food and water security across Asia.
“Our study makes it painfully clear that every fraction of a degree matters,” said co-lead author Harry Zekollari from the Vrije Universiteit Brussel in a statement released by ICIMOD. “The choices we make today will resonate for centuries, determining how much of our glaciers can be preserved.”
At the high-level UN conference on glaciers in Dushanbe, attended by over 50 countries, scientists and policymakers alike reiterated the call for urgent global action, according to the ICIMOD statement.
Melting glaciers threaten lives on an unprecedented scale, including the livelihoods of more than 2 billion people in Asia, Asian Development Bank Vice-President Yingming Yang was quoted as saying in the ICIMOD press note.
“Switching to clean energy to cut the release of planet-warming emissions remains the most effective way of slowing glacial melt. At the same time, it is essential to mobilise financing to help the most vulnerable adapt to a future of more floods, droughts and rising sea levels across Asia and the Pacific,” Yang added.
Central Asia’s glaciers, which act as ‘water towers’ for millions along the ancient Silk Road corridor from Pakistan to China, also face steep losses. Under a 2°C scenario, only 30 per cent of glacier ice in the region would remain, compared to 60 per cent if warming is capped at 1.5°C.
The study also showed that glacier loss continues for centuries even after temperatures stabilise, due to the slow way ice responds to warming. Glaciers melt rapidly in the coming decades, then more gradually as they retreat uphill, seeking a new balance.
"Glaciers are good indicators of climate change because their retreat allows us to see with our own eyes how climate is changing...[but t]he situation for glaciers is actually far worse than visible in the mountains today," said co-lead author Dr. Lilian Schuster from the University of Innsbruck in the statement.
In the tropics, the crisis is already advanced. Countries like Venezuela have already lost their last glacier, while Indonesia’s ironically named “Infinity Glacier” is expected to disappear within two years. Germany and Slovenia have also seen their glaciers vanish in recent years.
