March 2026 was the fourth warmest ever, with ocean waters being the second warmest and sea ice extent being the lowest

The globe experienced its fourth-warmest March — 1.48 degrees Celsius above the pre-industrial average (1850-1900) — in 2026, according to Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S).

The planet recorded its second-warmest sea surface temperature even as land temperatures were also factored in. This warmer-than-average sea water observation could pave the way for “likely transition toward El Niño conditions”, the weather observation body noted.

El Nino is the warmer phase of a recurring climate pattern across the tropical Pacific Ocean called the El Nino-Southern Oscillation.

According to Carlo Buontempo, director at C3S, just the month of March reported “1.48°C above pre-industrial levels, the lowest Arctic sea ice extent on record for March, and sea surface temperatures again approaching historic highs.”

“Each figure is striking on its own — together, they paint a picture of a climate system under sustained and accelerating pressure,” Buontempo said.

According to C3S, warmer-than-average temperature was reported across Eastern Europe, and the Russian Far East, the United States and the Himalayan and Tibetan Plateau region.

“In contrast, unusually cold conditions occurred across Alaska, most of Canada, southern Greenland, and northwest Siberia,” C3S observed.

C3S also observed that the average sea surface temperature between 60 degrees north and south — which in geographical terms encompasses 95 per cent of the ocean except the water in the polar regions — was 20.97 degrees Celsius. The warmest March on record was in 2024 during the last El Niño event, C3S observed.  

Sea ice extent

March 2026 also broke the record for average sea ice extent in the Arctic region — 5.7 per cent below the 1991-2020 average. Earlier, March 2025 had the dubious distinction of having the lowest ice extent for the month.

In the Arctic region, “sea ice cover was most below average in the northern Barents Sea and Svalbard region, and in the Sea of Okhotsk, both of which experienced much warmer-than-average conditions during the month,” C3S highlighted.

In the Antarctic region, sea ice extent was 10 per cent below the March average. But according to the observation group, the number needs to be studied in context — “coming after four years of much larger negative anomalies in March (20% to 33% below average)”.

C3S also observed Europe to be drier-than-average while large parts of Australia received substantial rain leading to floods.

India had a “normal” March in terms of precipitation and according to the India Meteorological Department’s category — 14 per cent in excess of long-term average. Chhattisgarh, Eastern Madhya Pradesh and the Telangana meteorological subdivision reported large-deficient rainfall, while almost the whole of Eastern India and Assam experienced large-excess rainfall.