Measured targets

India updates its climate commitments with incremental increase in goals for emissions reduction and clean power by 2035

Published on:

16 Apr 2026, 11:56 am

Listen to this article

On March 25, the Union Cabinet approved India’s updated commitments for climate action under the 2015 Paris Agreement. The latest Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), which are the third set of commitments India will submit to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), proposes incremental increase in targets for 2031-35 compared to earlier submissions. However, at a time when the world grapples with geopolitical conflict and a strain on supply chains, the updated NDCs reinforce a focus on development with decarbonisation (see "Incremental on surface").

At the core of the NDCs, announced through a statement on Press Information Bureau (PIB), are three headline targets to be achieved by 2035: reduction in the emissions intensity of the GDP (gross domestic product) by 47 per cent from 2005 levels; creation of 60 per cent installed power capacity from non-fossil fuel sources; and expansion of carbon sinks to 3.5-4 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide (CO2) equivalent from 2005 levels, through forests and tree cover.

Apart from these, five qualitative targets have also been identified, which according to the PIB release, “are intended to embed sustainability into everyday life and governance systems, promote climate-resilient development pathways, and enable a just and inclusive transition for all sections of the society”. An analysis by Delhi-based research initiative Climate Trends, published after the PIB release, indicates that the qualitative targets include climate-friendly and cleaner economic development pathways, resilient infrastructure to adapt to climate change in various sectors, mobilising domestic and international low-cost finance, capacity building and research and development, and alignment with the principle of “Lifestyle for Environment (LiFE)”.

With this submission, India joins more than 130 countries that have submitted their third NDCs. Under UNFCCC, countries have set NDCs since 2015 and are expected to progressively raise ambitions every five years. The latest round is significant because it follows the first global stocktake to review progress under the Paris Agreement. The stocktake, completed in December 2023, indicates that despite widespread progress, the world remains off track to limit warming to 1.5°C.

Emissions in focus

India’s latest commitments can be considered another step towards its goal for net-zero emissions by 2070, which it set in 2021.

India's targets differ from those of many others. Post the global stocktake, many countries committed to absolute emission reduction across sectors. China, for example, released its updated NDC in September 2025 committing to a absolute emissions reduction target of 7-10 per cent from peak levels—a shift in its earlier target of reaching peak CO2 emissions by 2030.

India’s new targets represent a commitment to climate multilateralism, says Avantika Goswami, programme manager, climate change, at Delhi-based think tank Centre for Science and Environment (CSE). "India is pulling more than its weight given its minimal historical contribution to emissions,” she says.

However, in a statement released on March 25, Labanya Jena, director of Delhi-based research institute Climate and Sustainability Initiative, describes the new commitments as cautious, shaped by both technological dependence and weakening global ambition.

Parth Kumar, programme manager, industrial pollution, CSE, points to a lack of sector-specific pathways in the NDCs. While multiple roadmaps exist, the connections between them and the overall NDC goals are not always clear or transparent, he says. For instance, in January 2026 government think tank NITI Aayog released three reports on decarbonisation roadmaps for cement, aluminium and micro, small and medium enterprises (MSME) sectors.

India’s latest NDCs differ from those of many other countries that have committed absolute emission reduction targets across sectors post the global stocktake

For each sector, the reports recommend a reduction in carbon intensity through a host of strategies including adoption of energy-efficient equipment and fuels, scaling up of Carbon Capture, Utilisation and Storage (CCUS), a technology through which CO2 emissions are captured and stored for use in products such as chemicals or concrete. Such technologies would need to grow at a more rapid pace to allow for reduction in emission intensity, Suranjali Tandon, associate professor, National Institute for Public Finance and Policy, Delhi, tells Down To Earth (DTE). “The concern is whether the increments to energy efficiency can be achieved to the extent mentioned,” she says.

Shift in energy

On the target to increase installed power capacity from non-fossil fuels, Vibhuti Garg, director, South Asia, Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis, a US-based non-profit, says in a March 25 statement that the NDCs fall short of what is needed at this stage of the energy transition. As on March 31, 2026, India’s non-fossil fuel installed electricity capacity is 283 GW, accounting for more than half of the total installed capacity. Solar energy leads the mix with over 150.26 GW, followed by wind (56.09 GW), large hydro (51.41 GW), bio power (11.75 GW) and nuclear energy (8.78 GW), as per data with the Union Ministry of New and Renewable Energy.

With such progress, a 60 per cent target by 2035 does not fully capture the pace of change already underway or the opportunity ahead, Garg says in her statement. Other experts highlight the fundamental disconnect between installed capacity and actual electricity generation. Only 29 per cent of India’s actual electricity generation comes from non-fossil sources, says Binit Das, programme manager, renewable energy, CSE. Capacity figures often mask deeper structural challenges, he says. “Solar plants that generate power for limited hours, wind turbines affected by seasonal variability, and renewable energy that is curtailed due to grid constraints all contribute to installed capacity without necessarily displacing coal. The scale of this inefficiency is striking,” he says.

A January 2026 report by global energy think tank Ember says that between May and December 2025, the national grid operator in India curtailed 2.3 TWh of solar power through emergency measures, with nearly 40 per cent of the curtailment occurring in October alone. The main reason for this is that the system could not ramp down coal plants fast enough during periods of low daytime demand. Transmission bottlenecks, limited storage capacity and financially stressed distribution companies also continue to constrain the system’s ability to integrate renewable energy effectively.

At the same time, the ongoing geopolitical crisis has added urgency to the transition. Amid the conflict in West Asia, disruption of oil flows has reinforced the risks of external dependence, Das says.

“Renewable energy, once framed primarily as a climate solution, is now increasingly seen as a strategic necessity,” he says.

Garg says the case for accelerating electrification from clean energy sources across sectors is stronger as India remains vulnerable to global supply and price shocks. “Industrial electrification, in particular, offers a dual benefit: reducing import dependence while enhancing long-term economic resilience.

Encouragingly, the NDCs emphasize building resilient infrastructure,” she says in her statement.

Yet as India reduces reliance on imported fossil fuels, it risks becoming dependent on global supply chains for clean energy technologies, particularly lithium and solar components. The challenge, Das points out, is to avoid replacing one form of dependence with another.

Question of finance

India’s latest NDCs also aim to develop low-cost, long-term finance mechanisms for green energy, capacity building and research and development. To put this into context, a February 2026 estimate from NITI Aayog suggests that India will require around $8 trillion between 2025 and 2050 to meet its net-zero ambitions, including $5 trillion specifically for the power sector. “This can come through public finances (government budgets), multilateral development banks or private capital—both for technology and for capacity creation,” Tandon tells DTE.

Mobilising the high level of investment is a formidable task, especially at a time when global climate finance remains uncertain, she says. She points to the outcome of the 29th Conference of the Parties to the UNFCCC (COP29) in 2024, which mobilised US $300 billion annually by 2035 in global climate finance, far below the $1.3 trillion demanded by developing countries. “Global targets have been watered down. As a result, the burden of financing net-zero transitions largely falls on individual countries. Currently, capital flows in India are largely domestic and debt-heavy. Unless this changes, we are unlikely to see a major shift,” Tandon adds.

Multilateral funding mechanisms also need to be deployed appropriately, says Tandon. “Concessional finance makes sense mainly for public goods like grid infrastructure. Another area is carbon offsets, for example, mangrove plantations to enhance carbon sinks. These could attract concessional finance, but their scale and impact remain uncertain,” she says.

Despite these challenges, India’s trajectory so far suggests steady progress. The country has already achieved significant reductions in emissions intensity, expanded its carbon sink, and surpassed key renewable capacity targets ahead of schedule. "In 2021-22, some 83 per cent of funding for mitigation came domestically; a majority of this was for clean energy projects. In 2024, India was the highest recipient of international development finance. Climate action—regardless of the drivers—has continued with a certain momentum despite the state of international finance," says Sehr Raheja, programme officer, climate change, CSE.

“The larger question is not whether India is on track in the short term, but whether it can sustain momentum required over the decades to reach its 2070 net-zero goal,” says Kumar.