The first month of the southwest monsoon season has resulted in droughts or floods or both for various regions of India, a symptom of the monsoon’s variations in the past few years, especially in June.
The all-India rainfall for the month of June was deficit by 11 per cent. The rains made quite a recovery in the last 10 days after the deficit had increased to 20 per cent on June 18 due to the stalling of the monsoon winds. Even then, the distribution of the rains has been skewed throughout the month, leading to a cycle of dryness and flood-like situations.
Forty-nine per cent of India’s districts have received deficient (20 per cent to 59 per cent below normal) or large deficient rainfall (>60 per cent below normal) in June 2024. Of these, 31 per cent had deficient and 18 per cent had large deficient rains.
Some of India’s rain-rich regions like Kerala and the Northeast have received much less rains than the normal. Kerala has a deficit of 25 per cent between June 1 and June 30. Ten of the 14 districts in the state have received deficient rainfall.
The highest deficit of 38 per cent below normal was in the forest-rich district of Wayanad, followed by 36 per cent in Idukki. The state has recovered in the last couple of weeks, as the deficit rainfall had become as high as 47 per cent on June 18.
In the Northeast, the state of Manipur continues be under severe deficit of rainfall. It received 62 per cent less rains than normal in June.
Manipur has been facing severe deficit of rainfall continuously for many years now. The state had a deficit of 36 per cent in the pre-monsoon season (March 1 to May 24) of 2024 and 38 per cent deficit in the post-monsoon season of 2023 (October 1 to December 27).
The deficit and drought-like conditions for Manipur in June come after severe floods inundated the state at the end of May and early June due to rainfall from remnants of Cyclone Remal. The floods killed four people and affected over 100,000.
Other states in the region like Mizoram and Nagaland are also under deficits of 38 per cent and 29 per cent respectively.
Towards the west of these states, the story of less than normal rains continues. Jharkhand has received 61 per cent less rainfall than normal while Bihar has a deficit of 52 per cent.
The recent heavy to extremely heavy rainfall in northwest India, especially in Delhi, which was a result of strong onset of the monsoon trough over the region in the presence of other weather systems such as a western disturbance, has not reduced the June deficit by much in the states of the region.
Many states are still reeling under severe deficit of rainfall while getting ready for flash floods and landslides in the coming days. The mountain states of Uttarakhand and Himachal Pradesh, both have received 49 per cent less rainfall than normal.
Punjab and Jammu and Kashmir also have huge deficits of 46 per cent and 38 per cent respectively and so does Uttar Pradesh at 34 per cent. The cold and dry high mountain desert region of Ladakh has received a whopping 385 per cent more rains than normal. Delhi is the other region with excess rainfall of 44 per cent.
Central India has received mostly less rains than normal. Gujarat, which is now reeling under extreme rainfall and flash floods, has a deficit of 30 per cent between June 1 and June 30. Odisha and Chhattisgarh have also received 27 and 28 per cent less rains than normal.
Apart from Kerala, other southern states have mostly received excess or normal rainfall. For instance, Tamil Nadu has received an excess rainfall of 116 per cent, the second highest in the country after Ladakh, while Andhra Pradesh has received 64 per cent more rains than normal.
The monsoon winds have almost covered the whole of the Indian landmass, except for the most northwestern parts, by July 1, according to data from the India Meteorological Department (IMD). This comes after a long hiatus in the progress of the monsoon in early to mid-June, especially in its Bay of Bengal branch.
If these most northwestern parts are covered by monsoon winds in the next few days, the onset of the season over the entire country would be a few days before the normal date of July 8.
The onset over Kerala and simultaneously over Northeast India had happened on May 30, two days before the normal date for Kerala (June 1) and six days before the normal date for the Northeastern region (June 5), according to data from the IMD.
The onset of the monsoon winds over India was hastened by the development and progress of Cyclone Remal in the last week of May.