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The South West Monsoon (SWM) season covered India on June 29, 2025, nine days before the normal date of July 8. But many areas, most in the country's northeast, are still suffering from a lack of rainfall. This is the third consecutive year of less-than-normal June rainfall in northeast India and July may be more of the same.
As on July 3, a third of the districts across the country were suffering from deficient or large deficient rainfall, according to data from the India Meteorological Department (IMD). Eight states or Union Territories (UT) also recorded deficient rainfall.
'Deficient rainfall' is when a region has received rainfall that is less than normal by 20-59 per cent in a particular time period. If the rainfall shortage is between 60-99 per cent, the region is said to be experiencing 'large deficient rainfall'.
On the other hand, the countrywide rainfall was 12 per cent excess on July 3, with 14 states or UTs having received excess (20-59 per cent over normal) or large excess ( over 60 per cent) rainfall. Most number of excess and large excess regions were in the northwest of the country, with the entire region being in excess by 45.1 per cent on July 3. Five states or UT had excess, while two received large excess rainfall from June 1 through July 3.
In a reversal of natural climatology, the arid state of Rajasthan, home to the Thar desert, received the highest excess rainfall among states — 135 per cent — while mostly semi-arid Gujarat was second with 100 per cent. Among UTs, the cold desert region of Ladakh received 255 per cent more rainfall than normal, while Dadra and Nagar Haveli and Daman and Diu witnessed 111 per cent excess rainfall.
In Rajasthan, the Bhilwara district received the highest excess rainfall of 314 per cent. In Gujarat, Sabarkantha district experienced more than normal rainfall of 254 per cent.
The causes of excess rainfall in western and many central states could be the genesis and progression of five low pressure areas and mostly southward position of the SWM trough, according to IMD. Three of the low pressure areas formed in north Bay of Bengal, while two formed in the Arabian Sea.
Meghalaya, the state whose name means the ‘abode of the clouds’ and has some of the rainiest places on the planet, suffered from the highest rainfall deficit among states — 48 percent less than average. The West Garo Hills district suffered from the highest deficit of 79 per cent. The East Khasi Hills district with Mawsynram and Cherrapunji, the two rainiest places on Earth, was recorded 40 per cent deficient rainfall.
Another state in northeast India suffering from lack of rains is Arunachal Pradesh, 80 per cent of whose area is covered by lush green forests. The state’s deficit in rainfall is the second highest in the country at 40 per cent. Anjaw is the worst hit district with 69 per cent less than normal rains.
The entirety of eastern and northeastern region of the country is suffering from 18.6 per cent rainfall deficit. June was also warmer than normal, especially at night, for the region, with minimum temperatures being seventh highest in the country since 1901, according to IMD data.
The fortunes for the eastern and northeastern states may not change in the month of July as well. IMD predicted on June 30 that the rainfall for the entire country could be 106 per cent of the normal, with many central Indian states set to experience extremely heavy downpours with the possibility of floods.
“The catchment of many major peninsular rivers such as Mahanadi, Godavari and Krishna and other minor rivers need to be monitored closely for increase in flow,” Mrutyunjaya Mohapatra, director general of IMD, said in a virtual press conference. Many areas in northwest India with Himalayan rivers and many major towns and cities are also to be watched closely, according to Mohapatra.
The weather agency also surmised that the dry conditions in east and northeast India may continue in July. The other places that may receive less than normal rainfall are extreme south peninsular parts of the country, mainly Tamil Nadu and Kerala. Some parts in the northwest and western regions may also experience a lack of rains.
“The main reason for this pattern of rainfall could be the southward position of the monsoon trough and the formation of low pressure areas in the Bay of Bengal that would support rains in central India while holding the drying trend in northeast India,” Mohapatra explained.