‘More than Trump himself, quickly spreading Trumpism will be dangerous for global climate action’
Donald Trump, shortly after beginning his second term as President of the United States, has issued several executive orders; one significant order being the withdrawal from the Paris climate agreement. This decision is expected to further hinder global climate efforts, which are already challenged by the prioritisation of COVID-19, ongoing wars worldwide and the reluctance of developed nations to provide sufficient funding.
Harjeet Singh, a prominent global climate activist and founding director, Satat Sampada Climate Foundation, spoke with Down To Earth about the various and significant repercussions of Trump’s climate policies, including their effects on India.
Jayanta Basu (JB): Let's get straight to the point. The second term of Donald Trump has begun with a bang, much like a T20 cricket match, as he issued a series of executive orders right away, including the withdrawal from the Paris climate agreement, which is currently central to global climate action. What are your thoughts on this?
Harjeet Singh (HS): This is a massive setback for global climate action. The second term of president Donald Trump is going to be far worse than what we saw last time in terms of climate change. The information that I am receiving, especially from my friends in the US, establishes that the current Trump administration is way more prepared compared to last time when it comes to act in favour of fossil fuel.
In his first term, there was a lot more adhocism in his actions; but his team is much more prepared; and, the wide ranging implications are going to be felt both at the global level as well as in context to US domestic environment. Not only climate change, human rights linked to it as well as biodiversity protection are also under real threat.
JB: You indicated that Trump's current team appears to be better equipped to oppose climate action. This implies that the current administration's stance on climate isn't solely attributed to Trump, as many people might think.
HS: Trump’s first term was seen as an accident as if people were not aware about the consequences and got swayed by his speeches. However, the same logic does not hold this time; despite people knowing what the kind of damages he caused, including sabotaging climate action, he has come back with overwhelming support.
The term now being used in the US is Trumpism; which goes way beyond an individual, and benchmarks the notion about America’s developmental roadmap. Clearly now the administration is going to follow Trumpism, in all its policies and actions.
The indication is already there as the administration is talking about declaring an energy emergency so that they can use all the power and resources to build critical fossil fuel infrastructure. Clearly this administration, as a policy and system, is going to invest a lot more in the fossil fuel expansion.
Trumpism is growing and the administration will follow it up; so that's going to be even more dangerous for global climate action.
JB: What does Trumpism specifically signify in terms of climate action on the ground?
HS: Let me start with what the Trump administration is going to do in the US. First of all, they will now make all efforts to scale back the support that President Biden administration provided to the renewable energy industry; wind and solar. It is going to jeopardise the clean energy transition that the US finally started in the last few years.
The Trump government will also end leasing out the massive wind farms, in the name of stopping the degradation of natural landscapes. Trump is also going to roll back many of the environmental protections and regulations brought by the Biden administration to limit greenhouse gas emissions on various consumer goods and likewise; in the name of lessening undue burden on energy production.
All these mean that the US emissions are now going to rise and rise massively because fossil fuel production is also going to increase and then, as well as the export. Consider the fact that even the targets that the Biden administration had set, were not as per the fair share of the United States; and imagine now even those being rolled back and instead going for more fossil fuel production.
JB: How pervasive will be the impact?
HS: We know that emissions anywhere are going to impact the whole climate system globally. So first of all, it's going to exacerbate the climate crisis and make it worse. Then, withdrawing from the Paris Agreement means that whatever little money that the Biden administration was providing will be withdrawn and that's going to create a massive hole in global climate finance. The least developed and developing countries, particularly vulnerable countries, will feel the impact, and even large economies like India will not be spared.
JB: Will the US immediately withdraw from the Paris Agreement, or is there a specific timeline before the country can officially exit?
HS: There is going to be a timeline in between the announcement and actual execution, but his announcement itself is going to impact the way US negotiates, and more disruption is expected to happen in the climate negotiations. One thing to be noted, however, is that so far, the Trump administration has announced that it's going to withdraw from the Paris Agreement, not from the United Nations Framework Convention of Climate Change (UNFCCC), under which the Paris agreement has been ratified. So the US is expected to participate in the Conference of Parties other than the Paris agreement part; and there will be more obstructionism from the US.
JB: Trump has declared his plan to withdraw from the World Health Organization. Does this imply that the WHO's recent effort to connect climate change with health will also be impacted?
HS: No doubt about it. And, overall, we have seen that the health sector has finally begun to recognise the impacts of not only climate change, but the extraction and the use of fossil fuels directly; and the WHO-led process was a step in the right direction. Clearly there will be more climate-linked public health challenges in future.
JB: What are your expectations for how global leaders will handle the situation, given that the response has been quite subdued so far?
HS: When Trump became president for the first time and the announcement of leaving the Paris agreement came in November 2016, the whole world was in a state of shock; and the responses of most global leaders were very spontaneous as they denounced it as a climate denial of a person. In fact, most leaders reaffirmed their commitment in taking climate action including in the Paris agreement.
This time, though there have been few responses from European leaders and others including about reconfirming their commitment in ongoing UN process and taking climate action; but their responses are not as strong as it was last time because they probably know that now Trump is a phenomenon, and they will have to deal with it. The world leaders, this time, are far more cautious because they also want to keep on engaging with Trump’s US on climate action.
JB: During Trump’s first term, when he declared his plan to withdraw from the Paris Agreement, numerous US sub-national entities declared their commitment to maintaining climate actions. They famously coined the phrase, 'We are still in' and even established large exhibition halls at subsequent COPs. Encore?
HS: Yes, that happened last time; despite the US, as a country, withdrawing from the Paris agreement, and related negotiations, several US sub nationals announced that they were still in. This time also, I would say that various US states and cities and private entities, especially the ones where democrats dominate politically, are expected to be on board.
However, there is a rider; I must say that the way Trump has come up so strongly on the agenda this time, rolling back of environmental standards and support so quickly after assuming charge, it’s quite likely that the financial sector is going to be extremely cautious in supporting renewable energy project; which means that the impact on the overall availability of finance for climate action is going to be impacted. So, both domestically and internationally, it is going to have huge implications.
JB: What about the implication on financial institutes like the World Bank?
HS: We must recognise that the US is the biggest shareholder with the World Bank, and if it announces climate finance policies not in sync with their current climate finance policy narratives; more problem will brew. The World Bank might face resistance on this matter; remember, the World Bank is currently crucial in the loss and damage funding process, which could be impacted.
JB: Let's discuss a related topic. There's a theory that many US cities and regions where Trump was popular have received significant financial support from Biden's administration, especially in terms of electric vehicles and similar initiatives. It might be challenging for Trump to stop this support; what are your thoughts?
HS: Definitely, there is going to be a resistance from the clean and renewable energy industry lobby as hundreds of thousands of jobs in the last few years have been created in these sectors which have witnessed massive growth. Hence, the beneficiaries from the green sectors are going to resist; and, the trend is global.