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Natural world heritage sites (NWHS) will be exposed to an increasing number of extreme climate events by the end of the century. Under a high-emission scenario, almost all NWHSs would be exposed, stated a study published in the journal Communications Earth & Environment December 5, 2024.
Researchers from Peking University and Chinese Academy of Sciences, China identified the exposure of 250 natural heritage sites to extreme climate events under four different future scenarios.
They found that by 2100 under the highest emission scenario, 248 out of 250 sites would be exposed to extreme climate events. Forest natural world heritage sites may face increasing pressure to complex extreme phenomena under emission rise.
In tropical regions, where high temperatures increased the vulnerability of biodiversity, researchers identified 14 natural world heritage sites to be prioritised that are poor in biodiversity and expected to face high temperatures.
The study suggested 14 NWHSs that require more attention. Out of the 14 sites, six are in Africa, four in Australia, two in Brazil and one each in United States and Réunion Island.
The African sites identified for expected extreme temperatures are Manovo-Gounda St Floris National Park (Central African Republic); Lake Turkana National Parks (Kenya); Okavango Delta (Botswana); Mount Kenya National Park/Natural Forest (Kenya); Ennedi Natural and Cultural Reserve (Chad) and Tsingy de Bemaraha Strict Nature Reserve (Madagascar).
Natural world heritage sites contain some of the Earth's most valuable natural areas recognised as being of Outstanding Universal Value to humanity for their global significance to nature conservation. The study offered a global, multi-scenario climate assessment.
Extreme heat is the dominant extreme climate event in the NWHS. These sites, however, are not only exposed to any single climate extreme, but also to compound extreme climate events of extreme heat, heavy rain and drought.
By the end of the century, the exposure of NWHSs to compound extreme climate events would be closely linked to greenhouse gas emission and other human activities. If the temperature targets set by the Paris Agreement are achieved, such as SSP126, results showed that NWHSs would face reduced exposure to high temperatures and compound extreme climate events could be avoided.
Under the SSP245 scenario, 17.2 per cent of NWHSs would be exposed to compound extreme climate events. This exposure increases to 31.2 per cent under the SSP370 scenario.
In the uncontrolled scenario (SSP585), 36.4 per cent of NWHSs suffer from compound extreme climate exposure. The 78.4 per cent of these exposures occur in NWHSs located at mid-high latitudes and in tropical regions.
Over the historical period (2000-2015), the study showed that 44.8 per cent NWHSs experienced extreme heat events. Under the high emission SSP scenario of SSP370 and SSP585, more NWHSs would experience extreme heat events than historical period. By 2100, nearly all NWHSs will experience extreme heat exposure, with 98.4 per cent under SSP370 and 99.2 per cent under SSP585.
NWHSs are already experiencing extreme weather events, including heat and droughts, which pose challenges to their preservation. Global climate change would place additional climate pressure on global NHWS protection, further increasing the challenge of protecting and sustaining them, the authors of the report noted.
Accelerating the deployment of carbon neutrality can co-benefit NHWS protection and the realisation of Sustainable Development Goal target 11.4.
Target 11.4 aims to “strengthen efforts to protect and safeguard the world’s cultural and natural heritage”.
As many as 16 natural world heritage sites are on the List of World Heritage in Danger. The fastest-growing threat they face is climate change.
Heritage sites face not only climate pressures but also excessive interference from human activities, including mining, tourism and logging.
Lake Turkana National Parks (constitute of Sibiloi national park, the South Island and the Central Island national parks) and located in Kenya has been on the World Heritage List of Danger since 2018.
A 2021 report from the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) found that over the next 20 years, climate change could likely lead to heavier rains over Lake Turkana’s river inflows, which would raise water levels in the lake itself and increase the likelihood of severe flooding.
The authors of the report urged authorities in Kenya and Ethiopia, both of which share a border with Lake Turkana, to brace for a future where previously uncommon floods, like those experienced in 2019 and 2020, become frequent events.