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Every monsoon, policymakers focus on whether rainfall will support food grain production, replenish reservoirs and stabilise agricultural output. Yet this year, one of the biggest economic consequences of an uneven monsoon may emerge not from crop fields but from cattle sheds.
India’s dairy sector, often celebrated as the world’s largest, rests on a surprisingly fragile foundation. Milk production depends not only on animal genetics, veterinary care or cooperative networks, but also on a steady supply of affordable, nutritious fodder. When rainfall becomes erratic, fodder availability declines long before milk production does, creating a lagged but powerful inflationary effect that rarely features in macroeconomic discussions.
The southwest monsoon of 2026 has been characterised by delayed rainfall, prolonged dry spells in several regions and increasing concerns over El Niño-related weather variability. While national rainfall averages may eventually appear close to normal, averages conceal an important reality: livestock productivity responds to local rainfall patterns rather than national statistics. For India’s dairy economy, spatial distribution of rainfall matters far more than aggregate precipitation. This distinction deserves far greater policy attention.
Livestock feed constitutes nearly 60-70 per cent of the cost of milk production. Green fodder crops such as maize, sorghum, bajra and cowpea rely heavily on timely monsoon rainfall during sowing and vegetative growth. Delayed rains postpone planting, extended dry spells suppress biomass accumulation, and episodes of excessive rainfall often lead to waterlogging, fungal infestation and nutrient loss. The cumulative effect is reduced fodder availability at precisely the time when dairy animals require balanced nutrition.
Farmers compensate by purchasing commercial concentrate feed. However, concentrate prices themselves tend to rise during poor monsoon years because feed ingredients, including maize, oilseed cakes and bran become more expensive. Consequently, both green fodder scarcity and higher feed prices reinforce each other, squeezing dairy farmers’ margins. Unlike cereals or edible oils, milk cannot be imported in sufficient quantities to stabilise domestic markets. India’s dairy industry is overwhelmingly decentralised, with nearly four-fifths of milk produced by small and marginal farmers owning only two to five animals. These households possess limited capacity to absorb rising feed costs. Faced with declining profitability, many reduce feed quality, sell productive animals or postpone herd expansion, all decisions that eventually reduce milk availability.
The economic consequences extend well beyond rural households. Milk carries a significant weight in India’s Consumer Price Index and influences household food expenditure across income groups. Persistent increases in dairy prices therefore complicate inflation management for the Reserve Bank of India while simultaneously increasing nutritional costs for consumers. The geographical dimension of this challenge is equally important. Karnataka, Maharashtra, Gujarat, Telangana and Andhra Pradesh account for a substantial share of India’s milk production but depend heavily on rain-fed fodder cultivation. Rainfall deficiencies across these regions can disrupt milk procurement by cooperatives and private processors even when other parts of the country receive surplus rainfall.
A farmer confronting fodder shortages in northern Karnataka derives little benefit from above-normal rainfall in eastern India. Milk production remains inherently local, making regional climatic imbalances economically significant despite seemingly favourable national rainfall figures. Climate change compounds these risks through another pathway that receives insufficient attention: heat stress.
Higher daytime temperatures reduce feed intake while increasing maintenance energy requirements in dairy animals. Cattle consume less dry matter, spend more energy regulating body temperature and consequently produce less milk. Scientific evidence also shows that prolonged heat stress affects fertility, conception rates and disease resistance, lowering productivity well beyond a single production cycle. Thus, even where fodder remains available, elevated temperatures reduce biological efficiency.
The simultaneous occurrence of nutritional stress and thermal stress creates a double burden for dairy farmers. Production declines while input costs continue rising—a combination that eventually reaches consumers through higher milk prices. These vulnerabilities are not entirely new. India has faced a structural fodder deficit for decades. Estimates by the Indian Grassland and Fodder Research Institute indicate persistent shortages in green fodder, dry fodder and concentrate feed relative to livestock requirements. During favourable monsoon years, abundant crop residues partially mask this imbalance. During erratic monsoons, however, the underlying structural weakness becomes visible.
Ironically, while the White Revolution transformed India into the world’s largest milk producer, fodder development never received equivalent policy priority. Investments focused primarily on breed improvement, artificial insemination, veterinary services and cooperative expansion. Feed security remained largely dependent on farmers’ own resources and seasonal rainfall. That model is becoming increasingly unsustainable under a changing climate.
India now needs to treat fodder as strategic agricultural infrastructure rather than an ancillary input. Establishing a National Fodder Security Mission should become a policy priority. Such a mission should promote drought-tolerant and perennial fodder varieties, incentivise village-level silage production, strengthen fodder banks in climate-vulnerable districts, encourage scientific enrichment of crop residues and expand cultivation of dual-purpose cereal varieties capable of supplying both grain and fodder.
Equally important is the integration of meteorological forecasting with livestock planning. Early-warning systems that combine India Meteorological Department weather forecasts with district-level fodder assessments would allow governments, dairy cooperatives and farmers to anticipate shortages instead of reacting after production has already declined. Fodder insurance and climate-linked contingency plans should also become part of India’s broader agricultural risk-management framework.
India’s dairy economy contributes not only to agricultural GDP but also to nutritional security, women’s employment and rural resilience. Protecting this sector requires recognising that milk production begins long before animals enter milking parlours—it begins in fodder fields shaped by rainfall, temperature and climate variability.
As extreme weather events become more frequent, dairy inflation will increasingly reflect climate risks rather than temporary market fluctuations. If India intends to preserve the gains of the White Revolution while maintaining affordable nutrition for its population, feed security can no longer remain an overlooked policy concern.
The real lesson from this monsoon is simple: the next inflation shock may not begin in grain markets or vegetable mandis. It may begin quietly in the country’s fodder fields, long before it reaches the milk packet on the breakfast table.
Sushmitha K S is Assistant Professor, Dr. B. R. Ambedkar School of Economics University, Bengaluru
Views expressed are the author’s own and don’t necessarily reflect those of Down To Earth