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While much of northern India is experiencing a severe winter, Kerala is facing an unusual phenomenon—heatwave-like conditions—despite summer not having begun in the southern state, which is typically known for its pleasant climate.
On December 31, the state recorded its highest maximum temperature for December, with Kannur reaching 37.2 degrees Celsius (°C).
In the past two weeks, higher temperatures were noted in Kozhikode, Thiruvananthapuram, and Punalur, while Kannur recorded the highest temperatures during the first week of January.
The Ernakulam, Pathanamthitta, and Kottayam districts have also recently recorded elevated temperatures, but North Kerala has experienced the most intense heat.
Last week, the Kerala State Disaster Management Authority (KSDMA) issued a heat warning following temperature alerts from the India Meteorological Department (IMD).
Climatic conditions have remained consistent, significantly impacting daily life across almost all parts of the state.
Many people, forced to stay indoors during the daytime, are dealing with significant disruptions in their daily lives, which has negatively affected trade and commerce.
“The state was expected to enter a cool period, as we typically experience northerly winds during this time. However, we are experiencing strong easterly winds, preventing the temperature from dropping,” explained Neetha Gopal, IMD director in Thiruvananthapuram.
“Additionally, we feel more heat due to the clear skies. While the temperature may not reach the highs seen in summer, above normal temperatures will persist in the coming days,” she predicted.
Although some areas of the state experienced light rain on January 9 and 10, cool weather is not anticipated.
Meanwhile, the KSDMA has advised the public to avoid sun exposure between 11 AM and 3 PM to reduce health risks.
According to M G Manoj, a scientist with the Radar Research Centre of Cochin University of Science and Research (CUSAT), the above normal temperatures are due to a convection band between Sri Lanka and the equator. He indicated that this condition would persist for another week.
“Southern India tends to be the hottest region in the country during this season. Kerala, located at the southern tip, will also experience elevated temperatures. There is currently no cloud formation, and with the sun positioned directly overhead, we will continue to experience above normal temperatures,” Manoj explained.
Experts have pointed out that the effects of climate change are particularly significant in Kerala.
In 2024, the state experienced numerous climatic anomalies. The southwest and northeast monsoons brought less rainfall than normal, with skewed distribution and short, intense storms becoming the new standard for the season.
By the end of the Northeast monsoon on December 31, Kerala’s average rainfall was one per cent below normal levels over the three months.
The southwest monsoon contributes nearly 80 per cent of Kerala’s total rainfall and was 13 per cent deficient last year.
Although rainfall was below normal during both seasons, there was no significant decrease in extreme rainfall events and the associated calamities.
Data from IMD indicates that the state experienced four extreme rainfall events, with localised intense rainfall exceeding 204 mm within 24 hours.
In recent years, there have been three such events in 2023, four in 2022, and none in 2021.
Additionally, the IMD confirmed a cloudburst—a localised weather phenomenon—at Thrikkakara in Kochi on May 28.
Before the devastating landslides in Wayanad on July 30, which resulted in over 200 fatalities, the area experienced 200 mm of rainfall in the first 24 hours and 372 mm in the following 24 hours, totalling 572 mm within just 48 hours.
For the first time, Kerala recorded six heatwave days in April last year, with temperatures in Palakkad exceeding the threshold. Other locations, including Thrissur, Alappuzha, Punalur in Kollam, and Thiruvananthapuram, met the heatwave criteria, which stipulates a maximum temperature of 40°C or more for the plains and a departure from normal temperatures of at least 4.5°C.
However, the variation did not occur on two consecutive days, as the IMD requires for declaring a heatwave.
Furthermore, Kerala has officially reported two fatalities due to heatstroke in 2024.
As summer 2025 approaches, meteorological agencies anticipate another harsh season.
Neetha noted, “We expect a severe summer this year, with agencies like the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) predicting the third warmest year in 2025 for global average temperatures, following the warm years of 2024 and 2023. Although the tropical Pacific is transitioning to a La Niña phase, which generally brings slightly cooler conditions, the trend suggests increasing temperatures.”