Rapidly changing flood patterns in the Hindu Kush Himalayas are challenging existing early warning systems and disaster preparedness.
The region faces multiple threats, including riverine floods, glacial lake outburst floods and avalanches.
South and East Asia account for 70% of the world's 1.81 billion people exposed to flood risks, according to a 2022 World Bank study.
Despite embankments, flood protection measures and rainfall warnings, communities remain vulnerable to increasingly unpredictable disasters.
Incorporating indigenous knowledge into scientific early warning systems could help strengthen local preparedness.
We live in a moment of global flooding”: Jason Cons, an anthropologist with the University of Texas at Austin, US, wrote in the journal Anthropology Now in December 2017. Nine years on, it resonates more than ever. Just a few weeks ago, Nepal saw one of its worst disasters ever, as a glacier collapse caused devastating flash floods in its Bhote Koshi river system and jolted the world to the limits of extreme weather prediction and preparedness in a warming planet.
As of 2025, floods remain the second-most frequent disaster and the second-largest cause of disaster deaths globally, according to the Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters (CRED). The risk is starkly concentrated in South and East Asia, according to a 2022 World Bank study, since 70 per cent of the 1.81 billion flood-risked population comes from these regions.
The Hindu Kush Himalayan (HKH) river systems, spanning Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, China, India, Myanmar, Nepal and Pakistan, are particularly susceptible to slow-onset erosion floods, rapid-onset glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) and avalanches, says the International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD), Nepal. The risks become evident each year during the monsoon. Just this July, riverine floods devastated districts in Assam despite flood protection measures like embankments and early rainfall warnings by the India Meteorological Department.
The fact is, even though governments, scientists and organi-sations have been introducing measures to cope with floods for decades, changing climate and weather patterns are increasingly compromising collective capacities to predict and prepare for floods.
Flood risk governance globally operates through two modalities: first is the material but forced separation of land and water, through an interwoven system of embankments, spurs and canals. These hard barriers aim to prevent flood hazards from reaching productive land. Second is preparing societies to cope with flood impacts through early warning systems...
This article was originally published in the October 1-15, 2026 print edition of Down To Earth
