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A low pressure area formed over the Gulf of Mannar and adjoining Sri Lanka on May 11, a western disturbance started impacting northwest India on May 10, heat waves affected isolated parts of Jammu and Kashmir on May 9 and wind speed in excess of 135 km/hr was recorded around Patna in Bihar on May 8, according to data from the India Meteorological Department (IMD).
Apart from these specific events, various parts of India have also experienced heavy rainfall, thunderstorms, hailstorms, strong surface winds, heat waves, severe heat waves, warm nights and severe warm nights in the last few days. Surface winds in excess of 90 km/hr, which is the same as a ‘severe cyclone’ over the sea, have been regularly recorded in many regions of India since March.
Every part of the country experienced at least one of these diverse weather events because of varied weather systems active over the country, some of which seem reminiscent of the monsoon season.
Nine weather systems, including a low pressure area, a western disturbance, four low pressure troughs and four cyclonic circulations were active over India or the surrounding seas on May 11. The southwest monsoon winds may also enter the mix soon. IMD predicted on May 7 that the southwest monsoon winds could reach south Bay of Bengal, Andaman Sea and Andaman and Nicobar Islands in the third week of May.
In the first week of May, India as a whole received 79 per cent excess rainfall, according to data from the IMD. Central region received the highest excess of 226 per cent followed by 161 per cent in northwestern parts of the country. Many parts of India received excess rainfall along with thunderstorms, hailstorms, heat waves, warm nights and hot and humid conditions in March and April as well.
India as a whole received 6 per cent excess rainfall between March 1 and May 11. The maximum seasonal rainfall occurred in some eastern, northwestern and western states. The highest percentage excess rainfall happened in Gujarat at 315 per cent followed by Bihar at 180 per cent. Uttar Pradesh received 149 per cent excess rains in the same period.
The low pressure area over the Gulf of Mannar may intensify to a well-marked low pressure area in the subsequent 48 hours. There is a low possibility of the system strengthening further into a depression, according to the IMD. On the other side of the country, an upper air cyclonic circulation is also active in the Arabian Sea.
The diversity of weather events and the weather systems that caused them even before the southwest monsoon arrives show the complex interplay of warming, moisture flow and changes to winds over the country. This also brought down maximum temperatures in many regions making the summer season much cooler than normal, against expectations of a warmer than normal summer season replete with extensive heat waves.
With an El Niño event, touted as a super event by climate scientists, on its way as early as May-July, according to the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO), weather over India could only become more complex and difficult to predict.