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Global coal mine proposals climbed 11% to 2,521 Mtpa in 2025 even as demand plateaued and new mine additions hit a decade low.
India nearly doubled its pipeline to 638 Mtpa, while China held at 1,321 Mtpa.
About 70% of projects remain pre-construction, raising concerns over stranded assets as wind and solar overtake coal in global power generation.
The global pipeline of proposed coal mining capacity expanded by nearly 11 per cent to 2,521 million tonnes per annum (Mtpa) in 2025, even as global coal demand showed signs of plateauing and new mine commissioning fell to a new decade low, according to the latest Global Coal Mine Tracker (GCMT) from Global Energy Monitor (GEM).
Global coal demand grew by less than 0.5 per cent in 2025 and is expected to plateau through 2030, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA). At the same time, wind and solar generation overtook coal in the global electricity mix for the first time in 2025, while coal-fired electricity generation fell by 0.6 per cent, according to Ember.
The increase in proposed mining capacity was driven almost entirely by India, whose pipeline nearly doubled from 329 Mtpa in 2024 to 638 Mtpa in 2025. China’s proposed capacity remained relatively flat at 1,321 Mtpa, more than the rest of the world combined.
Five countries, China, India, Australia, Russia and South Africa, accounted for nearly 92 per cent of proposed global coal mining capacity, or 2,314 Mtpa of the total 2,521 Mtpa, up from 89 per cent in 2024.
India’s proposed capacity of 638 Mtpa was nearly double its 2024 level. The report attributes the sharp increase largely to Jharkhand and Odisha, where proposed mine projects doubled. This comes as the Union Ministry of Coal has set a target of nearly 1.15 billion tonnes of raw coal production for the 2025 to 2026 financial year and plans to operationalise more than 20 new coal mines with an aggregate capacity of over 80 Mtpa.
More than half of the proposed global coal mining capacity, 1,297 Mtpa, remains at the pre-permit stage. Another 443 Mtpa has received approval but has not begun construction. Together, these projects account for nearly 70 per cent of the global development pipeline.
Around one third, or 781 Mtpa, has entered construction or trial operation. China accounts for 557 Mtpa, or 71 per cent, of this later-stage capacity, while India accounts for 101 Mtpa, or 13 per cent.
The type of mine could influence how quickly projects move into operation. Around 81 per cent, or 450 Mtpa, of China’s late-stage capacity consists of underground mines, which generally take longer to develop. In India, around 90 per cent of its 101 Mtpa late-stage capacity consists of surface mines, which can generally be brought into operation more quickly.
The report notes that projects already under construction are generally more difficult to halt, but most proposed capacity has not reached that stage and still requires permits, financing and final investment decisions.
Dorothy Mei, Project Manager for the Global Coal Mine Tracker at Global Energy Monitor, said advancing additional coal mining capacity amid slowing demand could expose governments, companies and investors to stranded assets, weaker project economics and greater market volatility from excess production capacity.
Tiffany Means, senior researcher at GEM and co-author of the report, said the economic rationale for expanding coal mining was becoming weaker as low-cost clean energy displaced coal. She said governments could cancel projects remaining in the development pipeline before they advance to construction.
Around three quarters of the global proposed coal mining capacity consists of new greenfield mines. Expansion projects account for 20 per cent, coal resource consolidation and restructuring for 5 per cent, and extension projects for 2 per cent.
India’s greenfield projects account for 80 per cent of its proposed capacity, according to the report.
Thermal coal proposals dominate the global pipeline, with at least 1,927 Mtpa, or about 76 per cent, of proposed capacity intended for power generation. Metallurgical coal accounts for 370 Mtpa, or about 15 per cent, while around 194 Mtpa, or less than 8 per cent, is primarily linked to coal to chemicals.
India’s pipeline is almost entirely thermal coal. About 603 Mtpa of proposed capacity is thermal coal, accounting for nearly one third of the global thermal coal pipeline and 94 per cent of India’s proposed capacity. India also has around 39 Mtpa of proposed metallurgical coal capacity, accounting for 6 per cent of its domestic pipeline.
The analysis also highlights India’s growing push to use coal as an industrial feedstock. The government’s National Coal Gasification Mission, launched in 2021, set a target of gasifying 100 million tonnes of coal per annum by 2030 to reduce dependence on imported liquefied natural gas, urea, ammonia and methanol.
In May 2026, the Indian government approved a $3.9 billion, or Rs 37,500 crore, scheme to incentivise new surface coal and lignite gasification projects for syngas production, targeting gasification of about 75 million tonnes of coal and lignite.
The assessment notes that Indian coal generally has high ash content, making gasification more difficult and costly than using lower ash coal. Large-scale coal gasification projects also require substantial capital and typically take five to eight years to build.
While proposed capacity increased, only about 113 Mtpa of new coal mining capacity entered operation in 2025, a nearly 40 per cent decline from 185 Mtpa in 2024. The 2024 figure itself was the lowest of the previous decade.
Coal mining capacity additions fell by 44 per cent in China and 96 per cent in Australia in 2025. The report links China’s decline partly to the growing contribution of solar and wind to electricity generation, alongside tighter safety inspections and approvals for capacity expansions.
Meanwhile, only about 1,145 Mtpa of currently operating coal mining capacity is scheduled to retire by 2035, equivalent to about 12 per cent of current active coal production capacity and about 45 per cent of proposed capacity. About 743 Mtpa, or roughly two-thirds of scheduled retirements, is expected to close by 2030.
China and India, the world’s two largest coal producers, report very limited operating capacity scheduled for retirement before 2035.
The report also identifies major gaps in coal mine methane monitoring. Only 236 of the world’s 2,448 underground coal mines are located in countries with active regulations requiring routine methane emissions monitoring and public disclosure. No country currently requires direct monitoring of methane emissions from surface mines.
The report cites evidence that individual surface mines can be major methane emitters. At Australia’s Hail Creek surface mine in the Bowen Basin, approximately 122 kilotonnes of methane was emitted, equivalent to 14 per cent of Australia’s total coal mine methane emissions reported to the United Nations, at 845 kilotonnes.
In India, operators are allowed to vent methane drained during mine construction directly into the atmosphere without mitigation. China and New South Wales in Australia have recently introduced legislation requiring or incentivising coal mine methane utilisation.
The report cites the International Energy Agency estimate that 4,481 kilotonnes of methane could be recovered and utilised annually from coal mines at negative net cost. The US Environmental Protection Agency estimates this is equivalent to nearly 6.6 billion cubic metres of gas, approximately 6 per cent of the gas supply disrupted by the Strait of Hormuz.