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China and India together proposed nearly 88% of new coal power capacity worldwide in early 2025
China added 21 GW of new coal capacity in six months, the highest in almost a decade
India commissioned 5.1 GW of new coal plants, with 92 GW of proposals in the pipeline
Both countries are rapidly expanding renewables but still see coal as vital for energy security
Europe and Latin America, meanwhile, are phasing coal out entirely
China and India together accounted for nearly 87 per cent of the world’s proposed coal-based power projects in the first half of 2025, according to a new analysis. The findings highlight how the global energy transition is being pulled in two opposing directions: while many countries are phasing out coal, Asia’s two biggest economies are still expanding it alongside renewables.
The report, published by Carbon Brief and based on data from the Global Energy Monitor’s (GEM) Global Coal Plant Tracker, shows that between January and June this year China proposed 74.7 gigawatts (GW) of new coal capacity and India 12.8 GW. In contrast, only about 11 GW of new projects were proposed across the rest of the world combined.
The analysis suggests that while China and India continue to add record amounts of solar and wind energy, they are also deepening their dependence on coal for energy security and industrial demand, complicating the global pathway to meet climate goals.
The report notes that almost all new coal-fired plants commissioned or started construction in the first half of 2025 were concentrated in Asia, with China leading the charge. The country brought online 21 GW of coal capacity in six months, the highest level in nine years. If this pace continues, total additions could reach 80 GW by the end of the year, the largest since 2016.
This surge, analysts say, stems from China’s energy crisis in 2021-22, which prompted policymakers to prioritise coal to prevent shortages. However, the report also points out that despite the boom in construction, coal use did not rise proportionately. China’s carbon dioxide emissions fell by about 1 per cent in the first half of 2025, thanks to rapid growth in renewables including solar, wind and hydropower. Many of the new coal plants are effectively being built as standby capacity, designed to run only during periods of peak demand.
India presents a different picture. By March 2025, renewable energy capacity in the country had surpassed 220 GW, a milestone that reinforces its 2030 target of 500 GW. Yet coal remains central to India’s power mix, supplying around 70 per cent of electricity generation.
The Carbon Brief analysis shows that India plans to add around 90 GW of coal capacity in the next seven years—roughly 60 per cent more than earlier targets. In the first half of this year, India commissioned 5.1 GW of new coal plants, compared with 4.2 GW in the same period last year. Following record proposals in 2024, total proposed capacity reached 92 GW by July 2025.
Coal plant retirements, meanwhile, have been sluggish: just 0.8 GW were shut down this year. Delays in enforcing pollution control rules, including sulphur dioxide emission standards, are further extending the lifespan of ageing plants.
This dual track, or heavy investment in renewables alongside continued reliance on coal, has led to India being described as moving on “two parallel paths” in the energy transition.
The trends in China and India stand in stark contrast to other regions. In Europe, coal is on its way out, with Ireland shutting its last coal plant in June 2025 and many EU countries planning complete phase-outs between 2029 and 2033. In Latin America, the report finds that new coal proposals have almost disappeared, effectively signalling the end of coal’s future in the region.
This divergence poses a major challenge for the Paris Agreement target of limiting warming to 1.5°C. Achieving that goal requires halting all new coal development, but the latest data show that Asia’s biggest economies are extending coal’s life.
The report stresses that China and India’s strategies are not driven simply by a desire to “burn more carbon” but by domestic priorities. For China, coal provides a safeguard against shortages, while in India it remains the backbone for baseload electricity and industrial growth. Both countries are simultaneously scaling up renewables, China by adding dozens of gigawatts of wind and solar every year and India by accelerating large-scale solar and wind projects.
Yet the parallel growth of renewables and coal underlines a complicated reality: the energy transition in the world’s two largest developing economies is anything but linear. Their choices in the next decade will profoundly shape not only their own emissions trajectories but also the global chances of meeting climate goals.