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Achieving India’s existing national and state-level electric vehicle (EV) targets could reduce road transport CO2-equivalent emissions by 50 per cent by mid-century (2050), according to a new global analysis by the International Council on Clean Transportation (ICCT).
The findings are part of the fourth edition of Vision 2050, ICCT’s annual assessment of the global transition to zero-emission vehicles, which models the impact of current and proposed policies on vehicle sales, energy use, and emissions through 2050.
According to the study, India is uniquely placed among emerging transport markets. While EV uptake remains at an early stage, domestic manufacturing already supplies close to 80 per cent of the country’s EV sales.
It adds that if national and state targets currently under development are fully implemented, the country could cut road transport CO2-equivalent emissions and liquid fuels demand in half by 2050.
“Such reductions would support India’s long-term net-zero goal for 2070 while reducing exposure to volatile fossil fuel imports,” a statement by ICCT noted.
The report also identified several India-specific trends that will shape the pace and impact of the country’s EV transition. These include:
1. India’s domestic EV manufacturing mirrors advanced markets
2. Heavy-duty vehicles offer India a major next-phase climate gain
3. India has one of the largest global emissions-reduction opportunities
4. Policy momentum is the main driver of India’s EV transition
5. India’s EV adoption curve steepens after 2030
India’s EV adoption will rapidly accelerate during the 2030s as potential national and state policies take effect, according to the assessment.
The country will take to electrification in a big way, especially across two- and three-wheelers, passenger vehicles, and eventually heavy-duty freight
“In doing so, India could strengthen domestic manufacturing, improve air quality, and align transport growth with its Paris climate commitments,” the report notes.
“With a strong domestic EV manufacturing base and a growing suite of fuel-efficiency standards, zero-emission targets, and state EV policies, India is well-positioned to accelerate its EV transition while delivering substantial climate and air-quality benefits,” the statement quoted Arijit Sen, Senior Researcher, ICCT, as saying.
“India’s EV transition is not just a climate opportunity; it is an economic one. Nearly 80 per cent domestic manufacturing shows that India already has the foundation to build its clean transport future at home. With strong supply-side regulations such as fuel-efficiency norms and zero-emission vehicle targets, this localisation potential can scale rapidly, strengthening domestic value chains, creating jobs, and delivering one of the world’s largest reductions in transport emissions,” Amit Bhatt, India Managing Director, ICCT added.