NITI Aayog report urges bold energy reforms to achieve $30 trillion GDP by 2047 & Net Zero by 2070

India can become a $30-trillion economy by 2047, while reaching Net Zero emissions by 2070, but only if it front-loads investment, reforms energy systems and manages deep social and resource trade-offs, according to a new NITI Aayog study Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero.

The report laid out two trajectories: a ‘Current Policy Scenario’ and a more ambitious ‘Net Zero Scenario’. Under the latter, India’s energy demand grows modestly despite an eleven-fold expansion of GDP, driven by efficiency gains, electrification and circularity.

Electricity becomes the backbone of the economy, with renewables and nuclear power dominating generation by mid-century, while fossil fuels shrink to a residual role by 2070.

Growth without carbon lock-in

India’s development story, the report argued, does not have to repeat the carbon-intensive path taken by advanced economies. Per-capita energy use rises to levels compatible with high human development but remains far below OECD excesses. Electrification of transport, industry and buildings (paired with massive clean power expansion) decouples growth from emissions.

By 2070, renewables and nuclear together could deliver near-zero grid emissions, while green hydrogen, bioenergy, storage technologies support hard-to-abate sectors. Crucially, lower fossil fuel imports strengthen energy security and reduce exposure to global price shocks, offering long-term macroeconomic stability.

Challenges: Finance, land, jobs

The scale of the transition is daunting. Achieving Net Zero requires cumulative investments of about $22.7 trillion by 2070, nearly half in the power sector alone. Current annual clean energy investment falls far short, leaving a financing gap that domestic capital alone cannot bridge.

Land and water constraints pose another bottleneck. Renewable energy expansion is spatially concentrated, intensifying competition with agriculture and ecosystems, particularly in water-stressed states. At the same time, India’s clean-tech push sharply increases demand for critical minerals: lithium, cobalt, copper, and rare earths, where import dependence is high and global supply chains are geopolitically fraught.

The social transition may be the hardest. Millions of jobs remain tied to fossil-fuel-linked industries and districts. While net-zero pathways generate more employment overall, gains are uneven, risking regional disruption without targeted reskilling and social protection.

Solutions: Demand, institutions, Mission Mode

NITI Aayog’s prescription is clear: Demand-side action must match supply expansion. Efficiency, behavioural change and circularity are the cheapest levers to cut emissions and reduce infrastructure stress. Early enforcement of building codes, public transport-led urban planning and industrial electrification can lock in long-term savings.

On finance, the report called for systemic reform — deepening bond markets, scaling blended finance and creating a dedicated national green finance institution to crowd in foreign capital. International climate finance, especially concessional flows, is positioned as essential rather than optional.

Institutionally, the transition requires mission-mode governance. A whole-of-economy coordination mechanism under the Prime Minister’s Council on Climate Change, supported by robust data and monitoring systems, is proposed to align ministries, states and markets.

India’s Net Zero transition is not a constraint on development but a redefinition of it. If executed well, it could anchor a cleaner, more resilient growth model and offer a blueprint for the developing world. But delay raises costs. The window to align infrastructure, finance, and jobs with a low-carbon future is narrow, and the choices made this decade will determine whether Viksit Bharat arrives green or burdened with avoidable risks.