Odisha’s green energy ambitions: Path to $1.5 trillion economy or unrealistic dream?

Odisha has unveiled one of India’s most ambitious renewable energy roadmaps, targeting transformation into a $500 billion economy by 2036 and $1.5 trillion by 2047 through aggressive green energy expansion. The eastern state plans to increase its renewable energy capacity from the current 18 per cent to 70 per cent by 2047, positioning itself as India's clean energy leader.

The comprehensive vision, developed with NITI Aayog under “Viksit Odisha for Viksit Bharat”, outlines infrastructure investments totalling Rs 2.5-3 lakh crore over 12-15 years across generation, transmission and distribution.

Around 70 per cent funding will come from private corporate investments. Currently, maintaining a power surplus of over 11 gigawatts, Odisha aims to increase renewable energy share from 10 per cent to 55 per cent by 2047, with transmission-to-generation capacity (megavolt-ampere per megawatt) ratio growing to 6 from 3.2.

Solar energy forms the strategy’s cornerstone, targeting 5,000 MW of Floating Solar Photovoltaic (FSPV) projects by 2030. The state leverages vast water resources, including seven major reservoirs and 51 medium reservoirs, offering up to 33 GW floating solar potential. The International Finance Corporation and GRIDCO are developing 1,000 MW FSPV capacity, with 1,500 MW additional from medium reservoirs. Under PM-KUSUM scheme, Odisha targets 100 per cent agricultural land solarisation by 2047, having received over 15 GW solar project proposals from industries.

The eastern state aims to generate 2,000 MW through wind energy by 2030 from an untapped 12 GW potential at 150-meter height, with 490.2 MW already approved. It positions itself as a green hydrogen manufacturing hub, aiming for 3-5 million metric tonnes annually.

Further, the government plans to get 5,200 MW through pumped storage projects by 2030 across suitable topography in Gajapati, Angul, Keonjhar, Koraput and Kalahandi districts and major reservoirs, Kolab and Indravati, with over 9,500 MW proposals received. It also has a target of 260 MW from current 110.5 MW by 2030 through small hydroelectric power expansion across 185 potential sites.

Targets for green energy consumption in industries increases from under 10 per cent currently to 15 per cent by 2029, 25 per cent by 2036 and 33 per cent by 2047. The service sector aims for 33 per cent green commercial power by 2036, rising to 50 per cent by 2047. Transport decarbonisation includes 80 per cent electric vehicle penetration and 100 per cent green river vessels by 2047. Employment in energy sectors expects to triple through targeted skilling programmes.

The viability question

Despite ambitious proclamations, Odisha's rural electrification and decentralised renewable energy objectives face significant structural challenges that cast doubt on their feasibility. The state's promise of 24/7 power supply to rural areas by 2047 appears overly optimistic given current infrastructure deficits and the concentration of growth in urban-industrial belts, leaving southern and western districts chronically underserved with low-voltage electricity.

The "Model Village Mission", which aims to provide basic energy access to over 50,000 villages, is an ambitious initiative that would benefit from clearer implementation plans and defined interim milestones. Likewise, the target of achieving 100 per cent agricultural land solarisation under PM-KUSUM by 2047 remains highly aspirational, given the current limited adoption of decentralised solar in rural areas and the significant coordination needed across diverse geographical and socioeconomic contexts.

To support these goals, it is important to closely monitor grievances, particularly those submitted through the grievance platform, and to conduct regular vendor performance reviews, taking corrective actions — including deregistering consistently underperforming vendors — to maintain quality and efficiency.

While the state projects over 50 per cent green electrification in agriculture and residential sectors, the heavy reliance on private corporate investment (70 per cent of total funding) raises serious questions about rural viability.

Private investors typically prioritise profitable urban and industrial projects over less lucrative rural installations, potentially creating a significant implementation gap for rural decentralised systems.

The emphasis on large-scale projects like floating solar and wind farms, while impressive in scale, may actually undermine true decentralisation. These centralised renewable installations require substantial transmission infrastructure and may perpetuate the same urban-rural energy inequality patterns that currently exist. The doubling of transmission-to-generation ratio suggests continued centralised distribution rather than genuinely decentralised local energy systems.

Furthermore, with R&D investment remaining below 1 per cent of Gross State Domestic Product and persistent regional development disparities, Odisha’s capacity to innovate and implement distributed renewable solutions at village level remains questionable. The ambitious timeline contrasts sharply with ground realities of rural infrastructure development, maintenance capabilities and financing mechanisms for small-scale renewable installations.

The state’s renewable energy vision, while commendable in ambition, may ultimately prioritise industrial and urban energy transitions over genuine rural empowerment through decentralised renewable systems.